Research On Prediction-driven Multi-objective Dynamic Location-distribution Problem Of Emergency Medical Logistic

In recent years,major emergencies have seriously affected the global economic development and people ’s daily life.In particular,the characteristics of public health events,such as difficulty in early detection,rapid development,wide impact and deep impact,will bring certain difficulties and challenges to the development of epidemic prevention and rescue work.Therefore,China has listed the new problems of global public health crisis management related to emergency logistics as a priority development area.In addition,the change law of sudden public health events is difficult to predict.In the face of a surge in the number of confirmed cases and a shortage of relief supplies in the short term,the reasonable scheduling of emergency medical supplies can provide guarantee for efficient rescue and control of epidemic spread.At this time,decision-making needs to be based on the number of confirmed patients in the epidemic area and the supply and demand of emergency medical supplies,taking into account the requirements of timeliness and economy,and quickly allocate supplies to each epidemic area.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to grasp the law of epidemic spread and adopt a reasonable and effective emergency material allocation scheme.At present,the research on the location-distribution problem of emergency materials is mainly based on natural disasters,while the research on public health events is less.Based on this,this paper considers the dynamic change of the number of confirmed patients during the epidemic period,and establishes an emergency medical material demand forecasting model based on the number of confirmed patients and a medical logistics location-distribution model considering urgency.Firstly,the Logistic-GF-SEIR model is used to predict the number of confirmed patients in each period.The superiority of this model and other models is verified by quantitative analysis of the prediction effect of this model and other models,and then the demand for single-day emergency supplies is determined.Secondly,based on the entropy weight-TOPSIS method,the demand urgency evaluation index system is established to provide decision-making basis for logistics distribution with the number of confirmed patients,the number of affected people and population density as indicators.Then,aiming at the shortest delivery time of emergency medical materials,the minimum total cost of emergency medical materials distribution and the maximum comprehensive ranking index of demand urgency in each epidemic area,a multi-objective dynamic location-distribution model of emergency medical materials is established,and the corresponding solution algorithm is designed.Finally,taking the emergency medical material support of COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan as an example,the feasibility and effectiveness of the model and algorithm are verified,which provides decision-making reference for emergency medical logistics.