Identification And Prediction Of Disruptive Technologies In The View Of Core-periphery Theory

In today ’s world,disruptive technology,as an important part of technological and industrial innovation,can quickly change the existing market structure,reshape the industrial ecology,and promote social and economic changes.Its identification and prediction is a frontier and basic work.It is of great significance for scientific research institutions,enterprises,countries and society to accurately grasp the strategic layout of science and technology and predict industrial trends.At present,the relevant research is becoming more and more mature and diversified in the data sources and research methods of disruptive technology identification,but it still shows the research space to be further deepened.First,it is less engaged in pre-prediction to construct a quantitative method framework for early identification of disruptive technologies.Second,it is less likely to discuss the possible form of disruptive technology with the evolution of technology network and the important transition time in its dynamic development process.Third,it does not discuss the dynamic whole process of disruptive technology from early marginal features to late core features.Fourth,the development of disruptive technologies is complex,and the relationship between its technical system and sub-technologies is relatively vague,which needs further exploration.In order to make up for the shortcomings of the existing research on the identification and prediction of disruptive technologies,this study attempts to explore the following three points : First,the core-periphery theory is introduced into the research field of disruptive technology identification and prediction,and the core-periphery status of technology network nodes is constructed.The relative change measure index reveals the possible core / edge evolution morphology of the technology,explores the important time nodes of its morphological evolution,and candidate technologies with transition potential.Secondly,based on the existing research on the characteristics of disruptive technologies,this study further measures the candidate potential technologies from the technical characteristics,knowledge base characteristics and market characteristics of disruptive technologies,comprehensively measures the characteristic changes of potential technologies within and between time windows,and finally determines the method system for selecting disruptive technologies in the field.Thirdly,on the basis of the identified results of disruptive technologies in the verified fields,the evolution path analysis of technology topics is used to explore the relationship between subtechnologies and the evolution trend of technology content.Combined with the intensity of technology topics,the important development direction or content in the future is predicted.Finally,this study takes the characteristics of technology development as the research object,and uses patent literature as the main data source to verify the identification and prediction methods of disruptive technologies in the field of new energy vehicles.Identification part : obtain patent data from Derwent patent database to construct initial technology co-occurrence network,and obtain technology group association network through Gephi modularization;using UCINET,the core degree calculation and core-edge technology structure division of technology groups are realized,and the candidate criteria of potential technology are constructed.Finally,eight technology groups are obtained and their transition periods and durations are recorded.From the three dimensions of technical potential,market potential and knowledge foundation,the hierarchical index system of disruptive technology measurement is constructed.The CRITIC method is used to weight the first-level and second-level indicators respectively,and the disruptive technology in the field is selected.Combined with the existing historical data,the identification results and their transition time are interpreted and verified.Prediction part : Based on the identification results of disruptive technologies,the representative patent sets contained in technical groups are used for topic clustering,and the important development direction in a certain period of time in the future is predicted through the mean measurement of topic intensity and the analysis of technological evolution path in the past six years.The empirical results show that the identification and prediction method of disruptive technologies from the perspective of core-periphery theory proposed in this study has certain application value in the field of new energy vehicles.To a certain extent,it can reveal the coreperiphery evolution form that may exist in the field of disruptive technologies,and its transition process and important change moments in the overall technology network.It provides new research perspectives and reference suggestions for exploring the possible laws of the early development of disruptive technologies,and can be extended to the identification and prediction of general disruptive technologies within a certain range.