Comparative Study On The Trend Of Chinese Sprint Performance Using Different Prediction Method

Background: Sprinting has a long history and enjoys great attention in the world.After decades of development,China’s sprint sport has a certain competitive strength,under the background of the construction of sports power in the new era,from qualifying for international competitions to advancing to the semifinals of some sprint events and even winning the final ranking of individual events.Objective: This study will explore the development trend of sprinting in China,Asia and the world from the perspective of record results,annual athlete results and event results,and analyze the evolution of sprinting pattern in Asia and the world and the fluctuation of China’s status in the field of sprinting in Asia and the world through horizontal comparison of the characteristics of sprinting in China,Asia and the world.To provide performance data reference for the training of Chinese athletes,and promote China to sprint power forward.Method: The results of the top 10 Chinese,Asian and world athletes in men’s,women’s 100 m,200m and 400 m events during 2001-2022 were statistically analyzed on the official website of IAAF.Moving average model,grey prediction model and neural network model are used to predict the results of the National Games,Asian Games and Olympic Games and the sprint results of some world,Asian and Chinese annual athletes.Results:(1)During 2001-2022,Chinese men’s sprint record improved significantly,while women’s sprint record did not break through.(2)The performance differentiation of the top 10 sprinters in China has intensified.A few athletes’ performance improved greatly;The performance gap between most athletes and Asian and world levels has widened.(3)Chinese athletes have accumulated 3 Asian Games gold MEDALS,12 Asian Championships gold MEDALS and multiple Grand Prix titles during 2001-2022.The men’s 100 m and200m advanced to the World Finals and won the Diamond League championship.(4)Predicted results of the 15 th National Games will be 9.90-9.95 s for the men’s 100 m champion,20.31/20.35 s for the 200 m champion and 45.65-45.95 s for the 400 m champion;The women’s 100 m champion is 11.32-11.51 s,the 200 m champion is23.05-23.6s and the 400 m champion is 51.33-51.82 s.Chinese athletes are expected to win MEDALS in men’s 100 m and men’s 200 m at the 19 th Asian Games.At the 33 rd Olympic Games,the goal was to advance to the semifinals.(5)All neural network models achieved the best prediction accuracy;Grey model followed,and moving average model was poor.Conclusion:(1)The development of Chinese sprinting is unbalanced,and the men’s 100 m and 200 m are close to the world level;400m development is slow;The results of women’s events are seriously divided,and a few elite athletes have good results.(2)Asian sprinting is developing rapidly,and Japan has a large number of elite athletes to become China’s main competitors;World sprint to maintain a high standard.China’s reserve force for sprint is weak.(3)There is a small gap between the results of the National Games and the Asian Games,and they can achieve a better ranking in Asian events;The gap with the world is too large,it is difficult to advance to the finals in the Olympic Games and world championships.(4)The men’s event of the 15 th National Games will keep rising,while the women’s event may decline.China has the potential to win MEDALS in the men’s,women’s 100 m and 200 m at the 19 th Asian Games.It is unlikely that China will advance to the final of the sprint in the 33 rd Olympic Games.(5)The neural network model achieves the best prediction accuracy in sprint performance prediction.The grey model is suitable for the event performance prediction with less data,while the moving average model is more suitable for the annual athlete performance prediction with more data.