Dynamic Prediction Of Chinese Population Model Based On The Improved GM(1,1)

Population is an important issue of the relationship between global and accurate grasp of the population, to understand the development trend for the development of national economy and social development plan and strategy has far-reaching significance. In this paper, the gray GM (1,1) model and the improved GM (1,1) model that is gray BP neural network model respectively of the total Chinese population predict the future, and compared the two models in the reliability of population projections. Found through improved model when making population projections significantly improve accuracy.Firstly, a prediction model based on China's population of gray GM (1,1) using the model to predict 2010-the total population in 2014 (million) the annual growth rate of the numerical difference between the predicted value and the actual population is too large, the mean relative error of 1.68%. Taking into account the cause of great error may be factors such as the total population of the larger number of male and female population, fertility, mortality, etc., but GM (1,1) model does not take advantage of these factors, simply use the total population the amount of data between the internal law of predictive analysis, this paper has established a BP neural network model based on gray, the model incorporates GM (1,1) model weaken sequence data volatility and BP neural network model specific nonlinear adaptive Features information processing capabilities, but also take advantage of a number of factors that affect the total population, compared with true value by simulation and give the average relative error is a very high accuracy, the model predicts 2010-2014yearpopulationtotal(million) the annual average growth rate of 4.98‰, the growth rate is very close to the actual value of China's population in recent years illustrate the gray BP neural network model of the Chinese population. It can achieve a very high accuracy of the prediction. In this paper, the prediction accuracy to meet the population Grey BP neural network model based on the premise of the Chinese population 2015-2018 were short-term prediction.