Can The Preparation Of Major Sports Events Promote The Optimization And Upgrading Of The Industrial Structure?

With the development of economy and the progress of society,the economic promotion influence aroused by the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has been paid more attentions to.Nowadays,more and more major sport events,represented by the Olympic Games and the Asian Games,have been and will be held in China due to its good development environment and organizational mobilization ability.The preparation phase of a major sport event usually has significant impact on the economy with its large-scale pre investment and long preparation time.So it’s important to investigate the promotion influence caused by the preparatory stage of a major sport event on the optimization and upgrading of local industrial structure,and help to more comprehensively assess the impact of major sport events on the economy.Taking Hangzhou’s preparation for the 19^thAsian Olympic Games as an example,this paper uses panel data to build a counterfactual model to calculate the treatment effect of Hangzhou’s preparation activities on the optimization and upgrading of Hangzhou’s industrial structure year by year,from Hangzhou’s successful bid to the entire preparatory years.First,this paper discusses the role of Hangzhou’s preparation for the 19^thAsian Games in the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure by dividing the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure into two aspects:the optimization of industrial structure and the rationalization of industrial structure,and taking the ratio of added value of tertiary and secondary industries and the total labor productivity as proxy variables.Then,two counterfactual models,synthetic control method and regression control method are used to calculate the treatment effect of Hangzhou’s preparation for the 19^thAsian Games on the local industrial structure’s optimization level and rationalization level.To ensure the reliability of the results,the counterfactual model is tested by fake place placebo test,fake time placebo test,substitution test and Difference-in-Difference average effect test to verify the robustness of the model.In particular,the ranking test results of the fake place placebo test are used to test the significant of the treatment effect of Hangzhou’s preparation for the 19^thAsian Games on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure year by year.At the same time,the modeling results and robustness test results are visualized.The results show that:1.The preparation works for the 19th Asian Games have a significant treatment effect on the optimization of Hangzhou’s industrial structure.During the period from the successful bid in 2015 to the completion of the construction of the venues and infrastructure in 2021,the average treatment effect of Hangzhou’s optimization of industrial structure calculated by the synthetic control model and the regression control model is 0.356,and has passed various robustness tests.According to the test results of synthetic control ranking,the treatment effect of optimization of industrial structure in Hangzhou is significant at the significance level of 0.05 from 2016 to 2021.The regression control ranking test shows that the treatment effect of optimization of industrial structure in Hangzhou is significant at the significance level of 0.05 from 2017 to 2020 and 0.1 in 2021.The gap between the two tests is quite small,showing a mutual verification effect.2.The preparation works for the 19th Asian Games have significantly promoted the rationalization of Hangzhou’s industrial structure in the early stage,but the treatment effect was no longer significant in the last two years of the treatment period.During the seven years period,the average treatment effects calculated according to the two counterfactual models were 16325 yuan/person and 16799 yuan/person,respectively,with a gap of less than 3%.The ranking test results of synthetic control model show that the treatment effect of Hangzhou’s preparation for the 19th Asian Games on the rationalization of industrial structure is significant at the significance level of 0.1 from 2015 to 2019,but not remain significant at the significance level of 0.1 in 2020 and 2021.The ranking test results of the regression control model show that the treatment effect of the rationalization of industrial structure is significant at the significance level of 0.05 from 2016 to 2018,and not remain significant in other years.Based on the empirical analysis results of the counterfactual model,this paper agrees that the preparation works for the 19^thAsian Games has significantly promoted the process of Hangzhou’s optimization of industrial structure,and also finds that the promotion effect of the preparation work for the 19^thAsian Games on the Hangzhou’s industrial structure rationalization is short-lived.It shows that there is a risk of"virtual elevation"in the optimization and upgrading of Hangzhou’s industrial structure during the preparation phase for the 19^thAsian Games,and relevant suggestions are put forward accordingly.