A Study Of The Coordinated Development Of Population And Economy And Society In Jiangsu Province

With the acceleration of modernization process,the coordinated development of population,economy and society has received more and more national attention.How to evaluate whether the population,economic and social development of a certain region are in a coordinated state,and how to promote the evolution of the three in the direction of coordinated development,has been one of the hot spots in the research of coordinated regional development.Jiangsu Province is located in the eastern coastal region,in the Yangtze River economic belt,and is a large population and strong economic province.In recent years,Jiangsu Province,like the whole country,has experienced problems such as increasing population aging,and has obvious differences among the 13 municipalities.Since population development plays a key role in economic and social development,do the problems in population development affect the economic and social development? and how to solve the problem of regional disparities? It is a very significant exercise to explore the process of harmonising population and economic and social development in this context.Based on the theoretical basis of coordinated development and domestic and foreign research literature,the paper compares and analyses the development of population and economy and society in Jiangsu Province from both horizontal and vertical perspectives,based on the data of population development,economic development and social development in Jiangsu Province and 13 municipalities from 2001 to 2021.Based on the existing research results and taking into account the social environment and the characteristics of population development,a system of indicators for evaluating the coordinated development of population and economy and society is constructed in the current social context of encouraging fertility,which consists of three subsystems: population,economy and society;after using the entropy method to determine the weights of each indicator,the development degree,coordination degree and coordinated development degree of population and economy and society in Jiangsu Province and each city are measured;finally,the coordinated development status of Jiangsu Province and each city is compared and analysed according to the measurement results,and the grey Finally,the coordinated development status of Jiangsu Province and municipalities was compared and analysed based on the measurement results,and the GM(1,1)model was applied to predict the coordinated development degree from 2021 to 2025.The results show that:(1)the population and economic society in Jiangsu Province have gone through a development process from a mild disorder to a high level of coordination,with the coordinated development degree reaching a maximum of 0.9144 in 2019 and decreasing in 2020,and the coordinated development of 13 municipalities showing a "decreasing pattern from southern Jiangsu to northern Jiangsu".In 2020,the coordinated development degree of Nanjing and Suzhou will reach 0.9301 and 0.9197 respectively,while the coordinated development degree of northern Jiangsu will just reach the middle level of coordinated development,and the coordinated development degree of Yancheng will only be 0.7205,which is the lowest in the province.(2)From the development status of each subsystem,in 2020,the comprehensive population development level of Jiangsu Province decreases from 0.8607 to 0.8037,a decrease of 6.6%,and the comprehensive economic development level decreases from 0.9254 to 0.9096,but the comprehensive social development level rises to 0.7633.According to the decrease of the coordinated development degree,it can be inferred that the population development plays a process plays a key role.(3)The forecast results show that the degree of coordinated development of population and economy and society in Jiangsu Province and its cities will increase year by year in the next five years.By 2025,the degree of coordinated development in Jiangsu province will reach 0.9346,with the degree of coordinated development in southern Jiangsu and some cities in central Jiangsu already far exceeding 0.9,while the process of coordinated development of population and economy and society in northern Jiangsu is relatively slow,with Xuzhou likely to be the city with the lowest level of coordinated development in the province in 2025 with a value of 0.8588.