The Temporal And Spatial Evolution Of Xinjiang’s Demographic Dividend And Its Impact On The Economy

Demographic factors play a vital role in economic development.The transformation of my country’s population structure has gone through a process of "high-low" to "high-low-high" and then "low-low-low".A favorable condition,at this time,the demographic structure is in the demographic dividend period.The demographic dividend is one of the important driving forces for economic growth.When the demographic dividend and economic development policies complement each other,the coordination role of the two can be brought into full play,and an economic dividend will eventually be formed.At present,the demographic dividend and the relationship between the demographic dividend and the economic dividend have become key research topics in the fields of economics and demography.At present,the phenomenon of declining birthrate,longevity and aging in our country is very obvious.The specific manifestations are the reduction of the child population,the reduction of the working-age population,the increase of the proportion of the elderly population,and the increase of the population dependency ratio.Facing a series of population problems,it will inevitably have a negative impact on economic development.deep influence.Xinjiang is located in the northwestern part of my country and is an economically underdeveloped area.Due to the wide area of desert in the region,coupled with the constraints of various factors such as ethnic structure and cultural customs,the population structure faces many challenges in the process of development.As the province with the largest ethnic population in my country,the age structure of the population in Xinjiang is mainly an adult population structure.With the further deepening of the aging problem,it will have a certain impact on the economic development of Xinjiang.Therefore,it is necessary to fully understand the regional characteristics of Xinjiang’s demographic dividend.It is of great reference value and significance to explore its impact on Xinjiang’s economic development,make reasonable planning and strategic layout in advance,and achieve a favorable development trend of Xinjiang’s population structure and rapid social and economic development.Based on this,this paper analyzes the characteristics and evolution of Xinjiang’s demographic dividend in a vertical,horizontal,and spatial manner,and through qualitative description and quantitative demonstration of the demographic dividend,empirical evidence from the supply,savings,consumption and other economic factors of Xinjiang’s labor force,and further Analyzing the impact of Xinjiang’s demographic dividend on the economy,the study found:(1)The demographic dividend of Xinjiang is gradually decreasing,and the trend of demographic dividend to demographic debt is unstoppable.Predicting the population structure of Xinjiang through the PADIS-INT population forecasting software shows that by 2026,the population structure of Xinjiang will turn into a false demographic dividend,by 2037,the population structure of Xinjiang will become a breakeven,and by 2040,the population structure of Xinjiang will officially enter the population debt At this stage,the dependency ratio will reach 59.36%,and the population aging rate will reach 19.16%.(2)The development of demographic dividends among different regions in Xinjiang is uneven.From the perspective of spatial distribution of Xinjiang’s demographic dividend based on dependency ratio,the high demographic dividend is mainly concentrated in the northern Xinjiang region,and the low population dividend is mainly concentrated in the southern Xinjiang region.,which is similar to the gradual weakening trend of Xinjiang’s economic and social development from north to south;from the perspective of the number of regions,there are fewer areas with high demographic dividends.(3)Xinjiang’s demographic dividend has a significant impact on labor supply.By constructing a linear regression model on the time series data of Xinjiang’s total population,child dependency ratio,elderly dependency ratio and employees at the end of the year from 1995 to 2020,it is found that the total population,child dependency ratio and labor supply are positively correlated,while the elderly dependency ratio and labor force are positively correlated.Supply shows a negative correlation.(4)The influence of the elderly dependency ratio on household savings in Xinjiang is greater than that of the child dependency ratio on household savings.By constructing a linear regression model on the time-series data of Xinjiang residents’ consumption level,child dependency ratio,old-age dependency ratio and Xinjiang residents’ savings level from 1995 to 2020,it is found that with the changes in the population structure in Xinjiang,the comparison between the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio The savings of residents in Xinjiang has had a profound impact,and the old-age dependency ratio has a significantly greater impact on the savings of Xinjiang residents.The reason may be that the elderly population will increase their savings in case of emergencies due to consideration of future risk factors.(5)The promotion effect of the elderly dependency ratio on consumption in Xinjiang is smaller than that of the child dependency ratio on consumption.By constructing a linear regression model on the time-series data of Xinjiang’s child dependency ratio,old age dependency ratio,per capita GDP and Xinjiang residents’ consumption level from 1995 to 2020,it is found that the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio affect the per capita GDP in Xinjiang,while the per capita GDP It can have an important impact on consumption in Xinjiang.Among them,the elderly dependency ratio has a relatively poor influence on consumption.The main reason may be that in old age,people’s consumption desire will gradually decrease,and the consumption ability will be insufficient,which will affect the elderly’s consumption.Spending power.(6)Xinjiang’s demographic dividend has a positive effect on economic growth.Through the model construction,it can be found that the increase of the total dependency ratio of the population in Xinjiang under the influence of population factors will lead to an increase in the overall social support burden in Xinjiang,while the decrease of the total dependency ratio can make the social resources in Xinjiang more reasonable distribution,and make the age structure of Xinjiang more reasonable.tend to be reasonable,so as to play a joint effort to promote economic development.Finally,based on the current situation of Xinjiang’s demographic dividend and the impact of the demographic dividend on the economy,combined with the actual situation in Xinjiang,corresponding countermeasures are put forward from the aspects of optimizing the population structure,extending the period of the demographic dividend,and improving the quality of the demographic dividend:comprehensively tap the quality dividend and further enhance the knowledge dividend;Driven by innovation,create a good environment for economic development;take multiple measures to increase the dividends of aging;optimize fertility support policies,improve the old-age security system,and ease the pressure of low birthrates and aging;increase the flow of labor force in northern and southern Xinjiang,and narrow the differences in regional demographic dividends,etc.Suggestions.