A Study On The Temporal And Spatial Cange Of Chinese Demographic Dividend And Its Regional Influence

Demographic dividend is one of the important driving forces of Chinese economic growth in decades.However,due to one child policy and other factors,the labor force is gradually reducing.The demographic dividend is disappearing.The impact of demographic dividends on the economy in different regions and the time of disappearance still lack research.Based on the previous research,this paper aims to study the regional differences in the impact of the demographic dividend to the economy and the time of disappearance.This paper select the time series data of nearly 20 years.The horizontal difference of disappearance time and regional influence of the demographic dividend was analyzed by selecting four population inflow areas and four population outflow areas.The vertical comparison was analyzed by selecting some cities in Guangdong and Henan Province,we find the scale effect of the disappearance time of the demographic dividend and its economic impact.The new classical growth model was used to analyze the regional differences in the contribution to economy from demographic age structure.The effects of demographic dividend on labor supply and real estate price are analyzed by vector autoregressive model.The use of ARIMA model and actual support ratio predicts the disappearance time of demographic dividend in different regions.The factors influencing the degree of demographic dividend were investigated by multiple regression method.The results show that:(1)economic development is driven by the age structure of population,whether it is inflow region or outflow region.The inflow region's demographic age structure has a greater impact on the economy than the outflow region.(2)demographic dividend in the inflow area and the outflow area both have scale effect,the different result between the scale is due to the statistical summary process which average the heterogeneity.(3)In inflows area the demographic dividend disappears at a later time than the outflows area.The disappearing time between municipal and provincial areas is also different.(4)The impact from demographic dividend disappearance to the regional labor supply and the real estate prices will cause heterogeneity between the inflow and outflow area.The demographic dividend is the granger cause of the change in the supply of labor.The change of demographic dividend in the inflow region will have a greater impact on the supply of labor force,and the duration of the change will be longer,while the impact on the volatility of labor supply is relatively larger in ouflow area.The demographic dividend in Beijing is the granger cause of the real estate price change while in Chongqing is not.In Beijing,the impact from demographic dividend on the of real estate prices is more durable than Chongqing,and the impact on the volatility is larger(5)The formation elements of demographic dividend is quite different between inflow and outflow area.The formation of demographic dividend is mainly affected by regional economic yield,labor participation rate,educational level and urbanization rate in inflow area,and by labor participation rate,industrial structure and urbanization rate in outflow area.