Inclusive Finance,Human Capital And Industrial Structure Optimization

In the context of great power competition,promoting the industrial structure optimization is of great significance to foster the high-quality economic development and enhance our international competitiveness.In recent years,China’s industrial structure optimization has been constrained by both tightening capital and human capital,thus there is an urgent need to cultivate high-quality human capital and also to promote high-quality inclusive finance to inject new momentum into industrial structure optimization.In concrete practice,the full implementation of the benefits of inclusive finance relies on human capital,and the role of human capital in helping inclusive finance to further promote the industrial structure optimization is increasingly difficult to ignore.In this context,based on the practical requirement of promoting industrial structure optimization,this paper incorporates human capital into the research framework of the industrial structure optimization effect of inclusive finance,and conducts theoretical analysis and empirical tests on the impact of inclusive finance and human capital on industrial structure optimization,and on the strengthening effect of human capital on the industrial structure optimization effect of inclusive finance,which has considerable theoretical and practical significance for promoting industrial structure optimization and high-quality economic development.On the basis of theoretical analysis,with the ten-year(2011-2020)panel data of 30 provinces in China except Tibet,this study conducts empirical analyses on the impact of inclusive finance and human capital on industrial structure optimization and on the potential strengthening effect of human capital on the industrial structure optimization effect of inclusive finance.Among which,the level of industrial structure optimization is comprehensively measured through gray correlation analysis and weighted synthesis method,using the rationalization,premiumization and ecologicalization of industrial structure as the basic indicators.And a comprehensive index system is constructed to measure the development level of inclusive finance more thoroughly.Meanwhile,the data from the research project “China’s Human Capital:Measurement and Index Construction” conducted by the Center for Human Capital and Labor Research Center(CHLR)are used to measure the level of human capital stock and the upgrading level of human capital structure.The estimation of the base model by stepwise regression demonstrates convincingly that both inclusive finance and human capital do exert a beneficial impact on industrial structure optimization.The heterogeneity analysis by sub-sample with mean values of human capital as the criteria reveals that the beneficial impact of inclusive finance on industrial structure optimization is stronger when the level of human capital stock or human capital structure upgrading is higher.To probe a more in-depth mechanism analysis for this heterogeneity,human capital is further included as moderating variable and threshold variable.The analysis on the moderating effect of human capital demonstrates that,both the stock of human capital and the upgrading of human capital structure exert a positive moderating effect on the beneficial impact of inclusive finance on industrial structure optimization.Furthermore,the threshold effect tests indicate a single threshold effect of human capital as the threshold in the impact of inclusive finance on industrial structure optimization,and the industrial structure optimization effect of inclusive finance is significantly enhanced after the level of human capital stock or human capital structure upgrading passes the threshold value.The empirical analyses verify the theoretically analyzed hypotheses that both inclusive finance and human capital promote industrial structure optimization,and that human capital exerts a reinforcing effect on the industrial structure optimization effect of inclusive finance.Finally,based on the theoretical analyses and empirical investigations,some suggestions are put forward to make the most of beneficial impact of inclusive finance and human capital on industrial structure optimization,as well as the facilitating role of human capital on the industrial structure optimization effect of inclusive finance,so as to promote industrial structure optimization more efficiently.