Research On The Influence Of Regional Social Trust On Management Voluntary Earnings Forecast

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th CPC Central Committee emphasized that China has entered a new period of development,and at the same time,the Chinese economy has also turned to a critical leap stage of high-quality development.The positive and efficient development of capital market is a necessary condition to keep our national economy steadily moving towards high-quality development.It is an important basis for information stakeholders to make decisions in the capital market,and information disclosure has been studied as a hot issue.Active disclosure of predictive profit information by enterprises helps external information users in the capital market to make future-oriented decisions,effectively reduces the transaction costs of investors in the capital market,and promotes the positive development of the capital market.Social trust is the key element of cultural and social capital,and it is also an important part of informal system,which has a significant impact on economic and social development.At present,existing studies have fully demonstrated the promotion of social trust to economic activities and transactions,but few scholars have paid attention to how social trust affects the information exchange between management and external investors.Based on the above background,we selected all A-share listed companies that disclosed voluntary earnings forecasts in CSMAR Database from 2011 to 2020 as the initial samples,and empirically analyzed whether and how the regional social trust level affected the release,frequency and accuracy of management’s voluntary earnings forecasts.In addition,this paper also explores the interaction of formal system on the relationship between social trust,an informal institutional factor,and voluntary earnings forecast of management.And the interaction of corporate reputation enhancement mechanism on the relationship between social trust and management’s voluntary earnings forecast.The results show that the higher the social trust,the stronger the willingness of management to issue voluntary earnings forecast,the higher the frequency and the more accurate it is.Further research shows that the more perfect the formal system of the enterprise location,the smaller the impact of social trust level on the voluntary earnings forecast of management.The more effective the corporate reputation enhancement mechanism is,the smaller the impact of social trust level on management’s voluntary earnings forecast is.In addition,the positive influence of social trust on management’s voluntary disclosure of earnings forecast is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises and enterprises with poor internal control quality.The above conclusions are helpful to strengthen the understanding of social trust among individuals,enterprises and governments,establish a good social trust environment,continuously improve the relevant laws and policies of information disclosure in the capital market and promote the more coordinated and positive development of the capital market.