Study On The Influence Of Population Mobility On Urban Economic Resilience And Measures

Economic resilience is the key to successfully addressing uncertain risks.In recent years,the COVID-19 pandemic has been rampant,regional hotspot issues have been frequent,trade frictions have been constant,global unemployment has soared,and the world economy has fallen into the deepest recession since World War Ⅱ.This has made the already fragile regional economy very difficult,and some regions have even fallen into recession.The population is the reservoir of the labour force,and the knowledge spillover and capital agglomeration caused by its migration behaviour are of great significance for improving the bearing capacity and adaptability of the urban economy.In addition,population mobility can promote innovation,optimize the industrial structure,promote the accumulation of human capital,improve the consumption level of urban residents,release the potential of economic growth,and play an important role in promoting high-quality economic development.To this end,this article is based on Baidu migration big data.The evaluation system of urban economic resilience is constructed from three aspects,namely crisis resilience,urban recovery and risk transformation.The study focuses on the impact mechanism of population mobility on economic resilience,which not only theoretically reveals the importance of population mobility on urban economic resilience,but also provides decision-making reference for China to deal with external risks and challenges in the post-COVID-19 era.Specifically,this research attempts to take population mobility as the entry point,construct geography matrix,economy matrix,and geo-economic matrix,introduces instrumental variables and moderating variables,and carefully examines the mechanism of population flow on urban economic resilience with the help of spatial econometric model.The result show that(1)the number of low-level economically resilient cities is the largest and distributed continuously,while the number of highlevel economically resilient cities is the lowest and distributed in clusters,and compared with the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta,the population accumulation characteristic of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is relatively slow from;(2)urban economic resilience exhibits spatial correlation,and the correlation order is geoeconomic matrix > economic matrix > geography matrix.Besides,the economic resilience of inflow areas is significantly affected by the net inflow of population.While in the case of economic adjacency and geo-economic adjacency,there is a spatial interaction relationship of "building a good partnership with its neighbours" in the effect mechanism of population migration on urban economic resilience;And(3)the mechanism between population mobility and urban economic resilience is significantly impacted by innovation input and fixed asset investment,with positive moderating effects.In the geographical and economic matrices,the innovation input effect has a negative externality,while in the economic and geo-economic matrices,the fixed asset investment effect has a positive externality.