Study On The Influence Of Aging Population On The Credit Risk Of Commercial Banks

The degree of aging population in our country is increasing,which has produced impact on society,economy and financial system.As the main body of our country’s financial system,the development of commercial banks is concerned with macroeconomic stability and security.Effectively dealing with the aging population and preventing financial risks bear on the overall development of the country.The content of this paper is conducive to a comprehensive understanding of the influence of population aging on the credit risk of commercial banks and its influence mechanism,so as to help banks better cope with the risks and challenges brought by population aging.This paper investigates the influence of population aging on the credit risk of commercial banks from both theoretical and empirical aspects.On the whole,the deepening of aging has an impact on residents’ consumption and investment structure.The income of the elderly falls and the demand for loans decreases;The pressure of young people to support the elderly increases,and the demand for loans increases;The elderly occupy the position of decision maker in enterprises,which is not conducive to enterprises to increase investment;The labor force decreases,the marginal output of capital of enterprises decreases,and the demand for investment decreases or "turns from substantial to fictitious ".The increase of risk-averse elderly population reduces the total number of borrowers,and banks have to turn to borrowers with higher potential risks,thus increasing bank credit risk.In addition,the aging population reduces government tax sources and income,while the increasing demand for pension facilities increases government expenditure.The increasing financial burden leads to the increase of government debt risk and increases the credit risk of banks.Finally,the housing price fluctuation caused by aging will also have an impact on the credit risk of commercial banks.Empirically,this paper analyzes the data of 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2019 by using the fixed-effect model,and examines the moderating effect of loan-to-deposit ratio and the mediating effect of per capita disposable income.The empirical results show that the deepening of aging has a significant positive impact on the increase of the credit risk of commercial banks;The increase of bank loan-deposit ratio will aggravate the influence of aging on the credit risk of commercial banks.Aging will have an impact on the credit risk of commercial banks by reducing per capita disposable income.According to the research results,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the perspectives of commercial banks and the government.On the one hand,under the aging trend,commercial banks should strengthen loan control,use fintech to improve risk identification ability,and reasonably control the loan-to-deposit ratio.At the same time,it should find out the new needs of the elderly society,expand the banking business and attach importance to the financial products and services for the elderly.On the other hand,the government should strengthen the management of the credit risk of commercial banks,and introduce more policies and guarantees to adapt to the aging trend,increase income and contribute to the healthy development of economy and society.The innovation of this paper lies in the following aspects:(1)The current literature mainly discusses the influence of population aging on economic development,consumption,savings,government debt,etc.,while few literatures analyze the relationship between population aging and the credit risk of commercial banks.(2)This paper verifies the positive impact of population aging on the credit risk of commercial banks through the empirical model,which enriches the relevant research content of population aging and the credit risk of commercial banks.(3)This paper makes a certain analysis of the path and mechanism of aging affecting the credit risk of commercial banks,which adds a new idea for the in-depth study of China’s aging population and the credit risk of commercial banks,and is a beneficial supplement to relevant research.The moderating effect model is used to study the moderating effect of loan-to-deposit ratio and the mediating effect of per capita disposable income is used to study the mediating effect.