The Impact Of Population Aging On The Consumption Of Urban Residents In China

In 2000,Chinese fifth census data shows that the elderly aged and above 65 has reached 88.11 million,occupied 6.96%of the total,the number of aged and above 60 is occupied 10.2%,that means China has already entry into aging society.In 2010,the sixth Chinese census shows that people who aged and above 65 occupied 8.49%of all,and in 2016,the promotion is 10.8%,and the situation of aging problems is becoming more and more severely.Due to the particularity of Chinese national conditions,the aging of the population is characterized by large scale and rapid development.From the emergence of the new normal of Chinese economics,the slowdown in economic growth and the long-term shortage of consumer demand,we can find that there till has potential consumption to be developed in elderly market.The aim of this paper is to discuss the impact of aging on urban residents’consumption,which is conducive to the deepening of the theory of population structure and consumption.On the basis of combining with sustainable economic theory,it is helpful to solve the problem of consumption downturn in China,such as upgrading the consumption structure,developing old industry,promoting the "silver economy",and discussing the construction of the aging security system in China rationally.This paper uses many methods like,literature review,theoretical analysis,comparative analysis,statistical analysis and econometric analysis,researched the impact of population aging on urban residents’ consumption.In addition to the first chapter,the basic logical structure and the main contents are as follows:under the premise of clearly defining the relevant core concepts,firstly,the paper analyzes the the impact of demographic changes on the consumption of residents by using the relevant principles.Secondly,this paper tells the present situation,problems and causes of urban population aging and residents’ consumption in China.At last,Taking into account the differences in economic development,the paper analyzes the effect of aging on the consumption and it’s structure of urban residents with empirical model.According to the availability and completeness of actual data,this paper analyzes the relationship between aging and urban residents’ consumption in China from 1994 to 2014,including regression analysis and gray relational analysis.Regression analysis mainly uses the fixed effect model and the system GMM model,and the results show that:(1)the aging of the population has a certain degree of inhibition on the total consumption level of urban residents,and the inhibition is different in economically developed provinces and economically underdeveloped provinces.The coefficient of repression was-0.759,and the inhibitory effect on the less developed provinces was-0.407,both of these have passed the significance test.It was also concluded that aging,whether in emergency developed provinces or underdeveloped provinces,consumption level to produce a certain degree of inhibition.(2)According to China National Bureau of Statistics,the consumption structure is divided into eight categories of consumer expenditure division,gray correlation analysis found that aging on the consumption structure of urban residents also have a certain impact,the greater impact is mainly education and cultural entertainment Service expenditure,health care expenditure,transportation and communication,of which:the degree of education,cultural and entertainment services is 0.840;the degree of relevance to health care expenditure is 0.826;the degree of association with traffic and communication is 0.838.Based on the above conclusions,this paper gives some suggestions of releasing the old consumption potential and promoting the overall consumption ability of the urban residents in order to perfect the old-age security system and develop the multi-year pension model,private capital and narrowing the income gap.The innovation of this paper is:(1)for the selection of indicators,not the general use of the national data as a whole,but based on the differences between urban and rural and differences among regional,the results more reference value;(2)for metrological analysis,combined with a variety of regression analysis methods to increase the reliability and stability of the test results,and from the "quantity" and "structure" two aspects of a more comprehensive analysis of population aging on urban residents The impact of consumption.