| At present,with the rapid development of social economy,the contact among countries in the world is gradually deepening,the traditional cultural concepts in China are constantly being impacted,the individual’s subjective consciousness is enhanced,and the cost of living and parenting is increasing,which makes the fertility rate drop continuously.At the same time,with the popularization of compulsory education and the improvement of medical level,the mortality rate is also decreasing.This has led to the phenomenon of low birth,low death and low growth.The low birth rate makes our country’s human structure face great changes,and the labor force is decreasing.The disappearance of "demographic dividend" will have a negative impact on China’s economic growth and social progress.With the national birth rate dropping step by step,the population problem has gradually attracted the attention of the whole society.In order to change this situation,the government has gradually liberalized the birth policy,and now the country has fully implemented the three-child policy.At the same time,a series of policies and measures to encourage fertility have been introduced in various places in order to save the declining population.The adjustment of birth policy is an important measure to deal with the declining birth rate,but the key to the implementation of the policy is how to effectively stimulate residents’ fertility will.At the same time,it is concerned that social endowment insurance may squeeze people’s fertility will by paying pensions.Based on this,this paper analyzes the relevant theories of social endowment insurance and fertility willingness,deeply studies the specific influence of basic endowment insurance on fertility willingness in China,and constructs a simple two-stage model to study the crowding-out effect of endowment insurance on fertility willingness from an economic perspective.And put forward relevant policy.Based on the data of CGSS database in recent five years,this paper studies the influence of social endowment insurance on fertility willingness.According to the problems in the database,the explained variables selected in this paper are "three children’s fertility willingness","fertility quantity willingness" and "male preference".At the same time,"participation in endowment insurance" is selected as the explained variable,and Logit and Poisson models are established.Through empirical analysis,conclusions are drawn,heterogeneity analysis is carried out,and model replacement method and explained variable replacement method are used.The empirical results show that:(1)social endowment insurance can reduce the residents’ willingness to have three children,have boys and have a large number of children to a certain extent;(2)Social endowment insurance weakens residents’ fertility will by replacing the traditional concept of "raising children and preventing old age";(3)In terms of education level,the fertility will of people who have participated in social endowment insurance and have not received higher education is more affected than those who have received higher education.In terms of income,the willingness of low-income people to have boys will be greatly affected,while the willingness of high-income people to have boys will not be affected.In terms of gender,men are more affected than women.Finally,on this basis,the main suggestions are as follows:(1)In the old-age insurance system,improve public security measures and embed incentive mechanisms in social old-age insurance;(2)Vigorously promote more children and create a "fertility-friendly" atmosphere in the family and society;(3)Advocating the correct and appropriate concept of marriage and childbearing in rural customs,reducing the cost of marriage and childbirth,and stimulating young people’s desire for marriage;(4)In education,the proportion of all kinds of education should be allocated more reasonably. |
