Study On Population Spatial Distribution And Rationality Of Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

The population scale of the Central Plains urban agglomeration is relatively high,gathering a large number of people,but the number of large cities is small,and the constraints of resources and environment are intensified.How to effectively guide the evolution of population spatial distribution to the direction of sustainable development of economy,society,resources and environment is an important research topic.Taking the city as the research scale,combined with census data and statistical yearbook,this paper uses Arc GIS and Stata software to analyze the evolution characteristics of population spatial distribution of Central Plains urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2020,selects the factors affecting population spatial distribution from three aspects of economy,society,resources and environment,and carries out linear regression and spatial econometric analysis,According to the research conclusion of influencing factors,the rationality of population spatial distribution of Zhongyuan urban agglomeration is evaluated by using capacity measurement method and population potential discrimination method.The results show that:(1)from 2000 to 2020,the population density of Zhongyuan urban agglomeration is about 4 times of the national average level,but the population growth rate in most years in recent 10 years is significantly lower than the national average level;The level of urbanization is low;The revenue and expenditure of local general public budget is obviously unbalanced;The industrial structure presents a "three two one" pattern,but the development level of the tertiary industry is low and there is still much room for development.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the population density distribution pattern of the Central Plains urban agglomeration is basically stable,which is sparse in the South and dense in the north,high in the East and low in the West;The speed of population agglomeration to the core city Zhengzhou has accelerated.The cities with sustained growth are mainly distributed in the north of the Central Plains urban agglomeration,and the agglomeration effect is greater than the radiation driving effect.The cities with stop decline and return growth are mainly distributed in the southeast of the Central Plains urban agglomeration,with great development potential.The cities with stop growth and contraction are mainly distributed in the northwest and southwest of the Central Plains urban agglomeration;The cities with continuous contraction are relatively scattered,and there is still a trend of continuous contraction;The population center of gravity is relatively stable and moves to the northwest as a whole;There is a positive correlation between population spatial distribution;The concentration of population continues to rise,and the trend of imbalance is increasing.(3)Economic foundation,industrial structure,transportation level and education level are conducive to population agglomeration,while topographic conditions,wage income and shortage of water resources are not conducive to population agglomeration.In terms of economic factors,economic foundation has the greatest impact on population density,followed by industrial structure;The factors that have the greatest impact on the social density;In terms of resources and environmental factors,topographic conditions have the greatest impact on population density.(4)The areas with the greatest population pressure are mainly concentrated in the east of the Central Plains urban agglomeration,the areas with large population pressure are mainly in the north and south of the Central Plains urban agglomeration,and the areas with moderate population pressure are mainly concentrated in the periphery of Zhengzhou and the southwest of the Central Plains urban agglomeration.The innovation of this paper lies in:(1)the research perspective is relatively new.The academic research on the population spatial distribution of urban agglomeration mainly focuses on the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei.This paper focuses on the Central Plains urban agglomeration with different development bases.(2)The research method is relatively new.In the research of the influencing factors of population spatial distribution,compared with the qualitative analysis and linear regression analysis commonly used in the academic circles,this paper uses the spatial econometric model based on the spatial correlation of population distribution.