A Study On The Characteristics And Changing Trends Of Inter-provincial Population Mobility In China

The spatial balance of population structure is the basic condition for the coordinated operation of social structure.With the establishment of the market economy system,the population mobility mechanism in China has changed from the "policy-led" population mobility in the planned economy to the "policy+market" guided population mobility.Under the effect of these two forces,the spatial distribution of population in China has different characteristics in different periods.Since the spatial distribution of population expresses the problem of spatial equality,it becomes a structural contradiction when the differences in the level of marketization and public services at the overall level are extended to each province,city,county and town.Against the above background,the article illustrates quantitatively the impact of marketization level and public service level on inter-provincial population mobility.And discusses how to rationally guide the orderly population mobility under the marketoriented economic system,so as to promote coordinated regional development and make social development balance efficiency and equity.This paper selects the data from the fifth,sixth and seventh population censuses to analyze the characteristics of inter-provincial population mobility and the mobility trends in China.Secondly,by introducing spatial effects and building a spatial Durbin model,the relationship between the level of marketisation,general public service expenditure and population mobility is presented in an intuitive way.The main findings are as follows:(1)The spatial distribution of China’s mobile population has significant dependence,with high population mobility rates in Fujian Province,Guangdong Province,Beijing and the Yangtze River Delta forming developed "agglomerations".Most cities in the central,western and northeastern regions with low mobility rates form "contiguous areas" of population loss.(2)Population mobility in China is driven by both government and market forces,with the level of marketization and the level of government public services being important drivers of population mobility.Therefore,the study concludes that first,it is necessary to strengthen the coordination of regional development and narrow the zonal gap to avoid creating contiguous poverty zones and large population outflows.Second,it should give full play to the advantages of socialist market economy and further deepen market-oriented reforms in the relatively less developed central,western and northeastern regions to create a favorable market dynamics and employment environment.And encourage the development and growth of private enterprises,so as to meet the large-scale labor market demand.Third,play the main role of the government to promote the equalization of regional public service resources and strengthen the core attractiveness of public service levels.And improve the precision of regional policies.Establish a supply mechanism oriented to demographic changes,based on capital,technology,taxation,and policy equalization,and adjust the supply according to different demands,thus improving the efficiency of resource allocation.