Research On The Generation Evolution And Risk Management Of Online Public Opinion On Black Swan Events Based On Social Combustion Theory

The world is now entering the era of "Uca",and the uncertainty,complexity and ambiguity of social risks have increased,it is very easy to trigger unpredictable black swan events with very low probability of occurrence and extreme impact.Black swan events such as Brexit,Trump’s presidential election,Italy’s failed constitutional referendum,the Hong Kong riots,and the New Crown epidemic often become "triggers" for the evolution of online public opinion due to their unknown,unlikely,and significant impact characteristics,and cause a high degree of concern among public opinion.In the process of spreading online public opinion on Black Swan events,the risk of public opinion on Black Swan events is aggravated by the superposition and resonance effect of some rumors,pseudoscience and other negative information,which affects the stable development of society.Guided by social combustion theory,this study investigates the generation and evolution of public opinion and risk management of the Black Swan Incident,which can help deepen the theoretical study of public opinion on the Black Swan Incident and improve the public opinion management capacity of government departments.Based on the perspective of social combustion theory,this study integrates the knowledge of journalism and communication,political science,sociology,statistics and other disciplines,and adopts multiple research methods such as literature study,case study,rooted theory,content analysis and sentiment analysis to systematically study the generation evolution and risk management of the online public opinion of the Black Swan Incident.Firstly,this study defines and explains the Black Swan Incident,Black Swan Incident online public opinion and social combustion theory,proposes the characteristics of catastrophic,sporadic and conflicting Black Swan Incident online public opinion,and analyzes the applicability of social combustion theory to guide the research on Black Swan Incident online public opinion.Second,this study takes the "November 2022 Chongqing epidemic" incident as a case study,uses the coding analysis of the rooting theory,and constructs a "combustion" model for the generation of black swan online public opinion based on the coding results of the analysis.It is found that the combustion base and material factors are the internal triggers for the generation of online public opinion on the Black Swan Incident,which include combustion base factors such as media literacy and cognitive impressions,and combustion material factors such as social transformation,risk distribution and interest demands;the combustion agent factors are the key nodes for the generation of online public opinion on the Black Swan Incident,which include government intervention,opinion leaders’ guidance,netizens’ The incendiary factor is the key node for the generation of online public opinion on the Black Swan Incident,which specifically includes incendiary factors such as government intervention,guidance by opinion leaders,netizens’ "spectatorship",media "pushing" and alienated information;the fuse factor is the direct cause for the generation of online public opinion on the Black Swan Incident,which specifically includes fuse factors such as event theme and event content fission dissemination.Again,this study borrows social combustion theory and research cases to divide the evolution cycle of the Black Swan incident network public opinion into flash combustion stage,deflagration stage and suppression stage,and analyzes the evolution of combustion subjects such as netizens,opinion leaders,government and media in different stages in terms of posting frequency and emotional evolution: First,posting frequency analysis.It is found that in this incident,netizens are the main and basic participating force,the government and media are the important force to deal with information rumors,true and false information and negative information,and opinion leaders are the important "combustion" driving force for the evolution of related online public opinion.It is found that in different stages of the"November 2022 Chongqing epidemic",the emotional evolution of netizens showed a"neutral-neutral-neutral" state,and the emotional evolution of opinion leaders showed a"neutral,negative" state.and the government and the media showed "positive,neutral-positive-positive,neutral The government and the media show a "positive,neutral-positive-neutral" emotional evolution.In addition,this study analyzes the high-frequency words and semantic networks at different stages: first,in terms of high-frequency words.It is found that the lexical nature and content of high-frequency words in different stages are mostly the same,but there are still some differences,and the words representing the emotions of Internet users gradually increase as the evolutionary cycle advances.Second,semantic network analysis.It is found that the semantic network graphs at different stages follow the structure of "core-edge",which can be divided into core layer,sub-core layer and edge layer,but the semantic network graphs at different stages are still different in different layers and words.Finally,this study deeply analyzes the risk of "burning" of the online public opinion of the Black Swan Incident,and finds that the lack of monitoring and judgment accelerates the risk of sporadic online public opinion of the Black Swan Incident;the lack of timely information disclosure induces the risk of cultural conflict in the online public opinion of the Black Swan Incident;the risk of catastrophic change in the online public opinion of the Black Swan Incident after the public opinion response.This study is based on the social combustion theory.To this end,based on social combustion theory,this study proposes to eliminate the risk fuse and optimize the effectiveness of governance of online public opinion on the Black Swan Incident by disposing of the Black Swan Incident at source and improving the monitoring mechanism of online public opinion on the Black Swan Incident;to control the risk combustor and strengthen the guiding momentum of communication subjects by optimizing the departmental online response work,improving the agenda-setting function of media and giving play to the guidance of opinion leaders;to enhance the cognitive literacy and analytical literacy of netizens;and to enhance the risk of the black swan incident.Internet users’ cognitive literacy,analytical literacy,technical literacy and other contents,improve media literacy and enhance the cognitive dimension of information audiences.