Research On The Influence Of Per Capital GDP On Population Mortality

In the past century,the mortality rate has decreased significantly,and the aging population has become more and more serious.Therefore,the research on the mortality rate has a great impact on the formulation of population policy,the arrangement of retirement plan and social security.The LCG model proposed by Geng Niu adds the observable variable GDP per capital into the LC model.The model extends the LC model’s method of extracting age and time factors from historical data,and makes up for the lack of clear meaning of time factors in the LC model.However,the specific impact of GDP per capital growth on the reduction of central mortality is not clear,and there is a lack of cohort effect including age parameters and time parameters.The main work and findings are as follows:(1)comparing the LC model with the LCG model,in the case of Geng Niu.On the basis of the LCG model,this paper focuses on the analysis of the change trend of per capital GDP in LCG model and the time factor of LC model,the proportion of explained variance and the cointegration of the two.It explains in detail that there is great consistency between per capital GDP and the time factor of LC model in the impact on mortality,and confirms that per capital GDP can explain LC model At the same time,we found that in addition to per capital GDP,mortality is also affected by some nonlinear factors.(2)By substituting lagged per capital GDP data into LCG model analysis,it is found that the lagged per capital GDP data model performs better in all directions,especially in the age of 0-14.The correlation coefficient between per capital GDP and logarithmic central mortality is calculated,which proves that the growth of per capital GDP and the decline of Central mortality are not synchronous,and the way of per capital GDP growth promoting the decline of mortality is And according to the real situation of each country,explain the results of the model,and put forward suggestions for China to deal with population aging.(3)By calculating the improvement rate of mortality and analyzing the cohort effect,it is found that the impact of cohort effect on central mortality mainly occurs in the elderly,and this impact will not be eliminated with economic growth.According to the ideas of APC model and LCG model,APCG model is proposed to make up for the lack of cohort effect in LCG model.The empirical results in different age groups show that the model is in 60-89 years old It provides a new research idea for the follow-up mortality model.