Study On The Evaluation And Countermeasures Of Local Government Debt Risk In Guizhou Province

A moderate amount of local government debt can drive regional economic growth by expanding investment,but if local governments over-borrow and the amount of debt far exceeds their own ability to service debt,it will inevitably lead to a series of risk problems,is not conducive to sustainable economic development and social stability.Guizhou province,as an underdeveloped minority province in western China,is in the middle and lower reaches of our country.In recent years,under the guidance of the catch-up strategy,local governments at all levels in Guizhou province have achieved rapid economic growth through large-scale investment,which has led to a continuous rise in the scale of local government debt,the corresponding debt risk also increases,Guizhou province local government debt risk problem needs to be solved urgently.Based on this,this paper comprehensively and systematically evaluates and analyzes the local government debt risk of Guizhou province from the theoretical and empirical perspectives,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to prevent and resolve the local government debt risk of Guizhou province.This paper takes the local government debt of Guizhou province as the research object,and mainly adopts the research methods of literature research,normative analysis and empirical analysis,qualitative analysis and Quantitative analysis analysis,etc.,based on the related concepts and basic theories of local government debt risk,this paper makes a deep research on the evaluation and prevention of local government debt risk in Guizhou province.In addition to the introduction,conclusion and prospect,the main research contents and results of this paper are as follows:First,the paper analyzes the causes of the local government debt risk in Guizhou,mainly attributed to the defects of fiscal decentralization,soft budget constraint,official promotion and economic development system From the non-institutional factors,mainly including the impact of urbanization development,debt-servicing capacity is limited,low efficiency in the use of debt funds and inadequate debt governance capacity.Second,the paper analyzes the present situation of the local government debt scale and debt-paying ability in Guizhou province,and briefly analyzes the present situation of the local government debt risk in Guizhou province.Thirdly,it constructs the KMV revised model to carry on the empirical analysis to the Guizhou province local government debt risk.First,this paper analyzes the default risk of the special debt of the local government in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2021,and 2021 that the default risk of the general debt of the local government in Guizhou province is relatively low,but the default risk of special debt is relatively high,and the overall risk can be controlled,by forecasting the appropriate amount of bonds issued by local governments in Guizhou province in the next few years,from 2022 to 2025,local governments in Guizhou province issued bonds worth 173.2 billion yuan,182.1 billion yuan,189.2 billion yuan and202.5 billion yuan respectively,the paper further analyzes the impact of the dynamic change of local government debt default risk in Guizhou province by appropriately reducing the interest rate of bond issue,extending the life structure and improving the efficiency of debt repayment funds,can effectively reduce the Guizhou province local government debt risk.Finally,through the identification,evaluation and dynamic analysis of the local government debt risk in Guizhou province,combined with the actual situation of Guizhou province,put forward specific countermeasures to prevent and resolve the local government debt risk in Guizhou province.By improving the local government debt risk management system,standardizing local government behavior,strengthening local government bond management and improving local government debt repayment capacity,we will effectively guard against and defuse the risks of local governments in Guizhou province.