Study On The Economic Impact Of Population Aging In Shandong Province

Population aging is an inevitable trend of social development,and the deepening of the degree of aging will have a certain impact on China’s socio-economic development.Due to China’s vast territory and uneven development in various aspects of the region,the impact of population aging on the economy of various regions is also different.As a large economic and demographic province,Shandong Province has a natural population growth rate of only0.02%,in 2022,the proportion of the elderly population is as high as 15.9%,the growth rate of the elderly population has increased,but the GDP growth rate has shown a downward trend.The deepening of the aging degree has brought challenges to the economic development of Shandong Province.Therefore,clarifying the mechanism of the aging population on the economy in Shandong Province is conducive to the sustainable development of the future economy of Shandong Province,and has reference significance for provinces with similar development backgrounds.This dissertation first analyzes the development situation of the elderly population in Shandong Province since the 21 st century,summarizes the characteristics of aging in this province,and finds that Shandong Province has a large scale of aging,rapid growth rate,and regional differences.Then,it predicts the development trend of aging in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2031 using GM(1,1)model.Secondly,by collecting time series data from2000 to 2021,a multiple nonlinear regression model was established to study the direct impact of population aging on the economy of Shandong Province.Finally,the indirect impact of aging on the economy is studied using the intermediary effect model and gray correlation analysis method.This dissertation draws the following research results through empirical analysis: The prediction results show that the proportion of elderly people in Shandong Province continues to grow,and the degree of aging will further worsen;The relationship between Shandong Province and economic growth is "inverted U-shaped",that is,aging promotes economic development at the initial stage.Once the proportion of the elderly population exceeds12.38%,it will inhibit economic development;When labor supply and fixed assets investment scale are used as intermediary variables,the results show that the intermediary effect of labor supply is significant,while the intermediary effect of fixed assets investment scale is not significant,indicating that aging will indirectly affect economic growth by affecting labor supply;By calculating the correlation between aging and various consumer goods and industrial structure,it is found that population aging can lead to changes in the consumption structure and industrial structure.Finally,this dissertation proposes countermeasures to solve the negative impact of population aging on the economy in Shandong Province from three aspects: improving the social security system for the elderly,developing the silver industry,and increasing labor participation rate.