Research On Risk Identification And Evaluation Of Government Public Construction Projects Under Agent Construction Mode

With the rapid development of China’s economy and society and the intensified urbanization across China,the public demand for public welfare and basic public facilities is gradually increasing.In order to meet people’s growing demand for urban functions,the government investment in basic and public welfare social fixed asset projects have been increased year by year,and the urban functions have been constantly improved.Government-invested public construction projects are usually characterized by high investment,large construction scale,and long construction period.For a long time,governments have adopted a rather homogeneous construction management mode on them.In 2004,the State Council officially issued a document to determine the implementation of agent construction mode for government non-profit public construction projects.As a new model for public construction project management,the agent construction mode has been widely used by governments to boost the construction of public construction projects as well as to enhance their investment efficiency,and it has been developed rapidly in recent years.However,during the course of its development and implementation,many problems were exposed and many risks were formed.If the government did not deal with them with effective response and governance,they can lead to losses or even the complete failure of a project,which will inevitably cause unnecessary losses to our country and our people.Consequently,studying the risk management of public construction projects under the agent construction mode make great significance.This thesis is based on the current status of the development of agent construction mode.Firstly,it explains the background and significance of this research as well as presents the related problems of agent construction modes.Secondly,the author provides an overview of the theories of project risk management,of government-invested public projects,and of the agent construction system,and introduces the selection of project risk identification methods and relevant principles.Thirdly,it identifies and analyzes the risks of several substituted government public construction projects by using the WBS method,literature research method and questionnaire survey,and summarized and identified 27 risks in total.Fourthly,after a comparison and selection,it uses Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)to comprehensively analyze and evaluate the project risks.Fifthly,to meet the requirements of the evaluation method,it uses factor analysis to reduced the dimension of the identified risk factors,and then grouped them into six major risk categories: organizational risk,the risk caused by owner’s decision-making,social and environmental risk,economic risk,technical risk,and management risk.Sixthly,with a real case and based on the established risk evaluation index system,it uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)to verify the risk evaluation examples,then determines the main risks of the project by calculating the risk weights and analyzing,as well as conducts an in-depth analyse on each main risk founded.Finally,it proposes detailed response plans and monitoring measures for each risk factors in the risk evaluation index system respectively.