Research On The Forecast And Control Path Of The Construction Scale Of Affordable Rental Housing

With the continuous acceleration of urbanization,the housing problem of new citizens and young people in cities is becoming more and more prominent.In order to solve the housing structural problem in the cities with net population inflow,the supply and demand scale of affordable rental housing has become the top priority,and is also an effective means to optimize the balance of housing supply and demand.Reasonable prediction of the supply and demand scale of affordable rental housing can not only alleviate the contradiction between housing demand and fiscal revenue,but also help to improve the construction of affordable housing system.Taking affordable rental housing as the research object and starting from the perspective of supply and demand forecast,this paper aims to forecast the supply and demand scale of affordable rental housing in the future,conduct relevant policy regulation in view of the contradiction between supply and demand,and provide referential methods for related forecasting research.First of all,on the basis of adhering to the principle of selecting factors influencing the supply and demand scale of affordable rental housing,we select factors from the demand side,including the per capita building area and the number of guaranteed population.Factors selected from the supply side include per capita GDP,per capita fiscal income,real estate investment,Engel coefficient,per capita disposable income,per capita housing consumption expenditure,urbanization rate,residential investment,residential completed area,market price of commercial housing,etc.The grey correlation analysis method is used to calculate the correlation degree of each influencing factor,and the factors that have a greater impact on the supply scale are sorted according to the correlation coefficient.Then,combining the demand and supply,the prediction model of the supply and demand scale of affordable rental housing is constructed.That is,the demand scale of affordable rental housing is estimated by the predicted value of the per capita building area and the number of guaranteed population.The predicted value of the key factors of supply is imported into the BP neural network model and the supply scale is predicted respectively from two perspectives of path dependence by using the comparative analysis method,and the two prediction methods are compared and analyzed.Finally,taking Xi ’an as an example,the empirical analysis predicts the scale of demand and supply of affordable rental housing in Xi ’an during the "14th Five-Year Plan",and draws the conclusion that the contradiction between supply and demand of affordable rental housing still exists.From the demand side and the supply side respectively put forward the corresponding countermeasures to regulate the supply and demand scale of affordable rental housing.By establishing the prediction model of the supply and demand scale of affordable rental housing,the influence of population inflow into cities on the supply and demand scale of affordable rental housing can be predicted.According to the forecast results,the supply strategy is formulated to meet the market demand and promote the healthy development of the affordable rental housing market.At the same time,this prediction model can also provide a reference method for related prediction research.