From Bureaucratic Politics To Groupthink

Decision-making in crisis is not only an important part of foreign policy decision-making,but also has a very special practical value.Rather than a static structural problem,American diplomatic crisis decision-making is a two-stage process problem.Therefore,the whole process of American diplomatic crisis decision-making cannot be described perfectly only through one certain decision-making theory:Actually,the first stage is where the president listens to opinions.At this time,many opinions exist and compete with each other,which is a bureaucratic political process.In the second stage,the decision-making group has determined the leading opinions after the political game,thus forming a close and highly-unified small group and starting to perform their duties.We call the turning point in this two-stage process the "Opinion Watershed".It is usually a yes-or-no choice.After "Opinion Watershed",people with different opinions will leave the core decision-making group,and a small group will be formed.At this time,the decision-making process also changed from the bureaucratic mode to the group-think mode.Under the joint influence of the requirements of the American decision-making system and the urgency of crisis decision-making,this two-stage process is also unavoidable.From Vietnam War to the failure of Iranian hostage crisis,the decision-making process of the United States always has such characteristics.By combing historical archives,we will further verify the characteristics of American foreign policy decision-making in crisis.