Risk Assessment Study Of Retaliatory Individual Extreme Violence Crimes

Retaliation-type personal extreme violent crimes seriously affect the public’s sense of security.Although the number of criminal cases,public security cases,and serious violent crimes in China have continued to decline in the past decade,and the general situation of social security has continued to be stable,the extreme violence of people who are prone to cause trouble,the extreme retaliation behavior of individuals triggered by conflicts and disputes,and the extreme psychological behavior of people with "social attribution defects" to vent their anger still occur,constantly endangering Public safety,affecting the public’s sense of security.The prevention of extreme personal violence requires strengthening the overall prevention and control of social security and resolving social security risks.In order to achieve the prevention of revenge-type extreme personal violence crimes at the source and to proactively detect and reduce damage,risk assessment studies are conducted through case studies.Under the theoretical framework of risk management,the risk assessment of retaliatory personal extreme violence crimes is realized according to the logic of "risk identification and analysis-construction of risk indicators-risk rating-risk response".By summarizing 90 typical cases from 2000 to 2023,the study analyzed the characteristics of revenge-type individual extreme violence crimes.The risk factors of retaliation-type personal extreme violence crimes are identified and analyzed in terms of individual danger and social vulnerability,and a risk assessment model of retaliation-type personal extreme violence crimes is constructed based on risk expressions.Based on the identification of risk factors,three primary indicators of perpetrators,behavioral patterns,and social prevention and control capabilities were selected and refined into 11 secondary indicators and 45 tertiary indicators.The network hierarchical analysis method(ANP)is used to determine the relationship between the three levels of indicators and calculate the weight of each indicator,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the crime risk level,regardingo the "red,orange,yellow and blue" risk level,and selected cases to verify the feasibility of the risk assessment index system.Based on the risk factors identified and the risk indicators with higher weight in the calculation results,the following four aspects of crime prevention and control countermeasures are proposed.First,to enhance the risk warning capability by breaking data silos and optimizing the risk warning system.Second,to reduce the risk of offenders by broadening the channels of abnormal psychological discovery intervention,providing multidimensional social support for vulnerable groups and exploring legal ways to resolve conflicts and disputes.Third,by enhang the supervision of dangerous and explosive substances and controlled knives,enhance the awareness and ability of the public to prevent reduce the and risk of behavioral patterns.Fourth,by strengthening the monitoring of high-risk behavior,implementing the management of key personnel and strengthening the construction of security protection infrastructure to improve social prevention and control capabilities.Through the above measures to achieve the prevention and governance of revenge-type personal extreme violence crimes.