Parliamentary By-Elections In The UK And Their Impact On Party Polictics In The Post-Brexit Era

The UK’s 2016 referendum in favour of Brexit is a classic black swan event in world politics,but the process has not been smooth.Has experienced a number of agreements have been rejected,“Brexit” time has been delayed,leaders step down one after another,and so on.This process has had a serious impact on all areas of British politics,in particular party politics,and has not only led to a deepening rift within the two main parties,the Conservative Party and the Labour Party,and make British political position polarization,political pattern fragmentation,political appeal diversification.The academic circle of our country divides it into“Brexit era”and“Post-brexit era”,and“Post-brexit era” refers to the period after Britain formally left the EU on January 31,2020.Into the“Post-brexit era”,the UK has seen a drop in the value of the pound,stagnant economic growth,deflationary inflation,the cost of living crisis,a wave of general strikes,Scotland’s demand for another independence referendum and a host of other issues.Whether the parties can bridge the differences within the party,the two mainstream political parties show the support of the trend,between the chaos of change and whether Britain can manage change to achieve reform,the future of Britain has aroused great concern in the political and academic circles.Parliamentary by-elections are part of Britain’s political structure and take place all year round.Known as the“Barometer” of British politics,for the“Post-brexit era” of the development of British party politics to provide some reference.In this paper,literature analysis,comparative analysis and qualitative and quantitative analysis,from the following aspects of the“Post-brexit era” of the British parliamentary by-election for a comprehensive exposition.The first part briefly introduces the concept,function and historical evolution of by-election in British Parliament.The second part discusses the characteristics of by-elections in the post-brexit era from the perspectives of constituency development,attitudes towards Europe and causes of vacancies.The third part analyzes the data of the 13 parliamentary by-elections in the post-brexit era from a quantitative perspective,in the by-election,the voter turnout is lower than that of the general election,the winning party’s vote rate is higher than that of the general election,the SF value which predicts the voter concentration tends to be scattered,and the voter turnout has a strong correlation with the Labour Party and the Liberal Democratic Party’s vote rate.As a result,the Conservative Party frequently lost seats in by-elections,Labour,the Liberal Democrats won seats one after another.The fourth part believes that the main reasons for this result are three: first,the emergence of inter-generational transfer and the decline in the enthusiasm to vote has weakened the loyalty of voters to the party.Second,the Conservative Party constituency of a number of mps misconduct and the“Party door incident” continued to ferment affected the image of the party.Third,strategic voting in by-elections and retaliatory voting inspired by conservative political scandals are widely used.The last part concludes that by-elections in the British parliament not only lead to the frequent loss of seats of the ruling party,but also affect the stability of the party leadership.But the opposition and third-largest parties have had an easy time building support and securing new seats in previous elections.In addition,the by-elections have had a significant impact on the government,with some seats changing hands and a smaller parliamentary majority,while others have seen party leaders step down or even re-run general elections.From the“Post-brexit era” of the British parliamentary by-election results,the current British Conservative Party is deeply oppressed by all forces,in a very dangerous situation.Labour and the Lib Dems have enjoyed rising voter support and won new seats in quick succession.It remains to be seen whether the new Indian Prime Minister,Richy Sunak,will be able to find a way to deal with the problems that have arisen as a result of Brexit,and to rescue the endangered Conservative Party and lead the country out of its current predicament.