Research On The Impact Of The Number Of Children On Household Consumption

Entering the 21 st century,China’s population problems have begun to emerge.The accelerated aging process,the reduction of the population of childbearing age,the low fertility desire,the gender imbalance and other issues have become obstacles to economic and social development.In response to population issues,China’s fertility policy has been continuously adjusted in accordance with the actual national conditions.However,with the implementation of the three child policy and the increase in the number of family children,factors such as the unfavorable employment market for women and the adjustment of family consumption habits have had a negative impact on consumption,which is not conducive to the sustained and healthy development of the economy.Therefore,studying household consumption from the perspective of the number of children can promote a two-way increase in fertility consumption,which is conducive to promoting healthy development of population and economy.This article first analyzes the dual effects of promoting and suppressing household consumption by the number of children from a theoretical perspective,which may lead to a non-linear relationship between the number of children and household consumption.Then,the current situation of family fertility and consumption was analyzed using China Statistical Yearbook and China Household Tracking Survey data.Finally,based on the 2018 Chinese household tracking survey data,using a nonlinear model and OLS and Tobit models,the total household consumption,average consumption,itemized consumption,and consumption upgrading were selected as the dependent variables,and the total number of children in the family and the number of children with different gender and age characteristics were used as the core explanatory variables to explore the impact of the number of children on household consumption.In addition,"the average number of children in the community" was introduced as an instrumental variable for endogeneity test,and robustness test was conducted through quantile regression,tail shrinking and other methods.At the same time,the heterogeneity of urban and rural,regional and family characteristics of the above impacts was discussed.The empirical results show that: firstly,when the number of children in a family is small,the marginal utility of child rearing is greater than the marginal cost,and the increase in the number of children promotes family consumption;When the number of children in a family is large,the marginal utility of child rearing is<marginal cost,and the increase in the number of children inhibits family consumption.Secondly,the number of children directly determines the cost of parenting,and raising children by parents has both the self-interest and emotional selflessness of future retirement.Therefore,an increase in the number of children will have a crowding effect on the consumption of other family members.Thirdly,there are differences in the impact of the number of children on itemized consumption,with food,housing,transportation and communication,and healthcare consumption increasing with the increase of the number of children;The consumption of clothing,shoes and hats,household equipment and daily necessities,and cultural,educational,and entertainment shows an "inverted U-shaped" trend with the increase of the number of children.Fourthly,an increase in the number of children in childless and only child families will lead to an increase in consumption,while an increase in the number of children in multi child families will lead to a decrease in consumption.Based on the research findings,the following suggestions are proposed:(1)Increasing residents’ income levels to increase household consumption budgets;(2)Promote and guide correct consumption concepts to promote consumption upgrading;(3)Reduce the marginal cost of raising children by strengthening education reform and improving the social security system;(4)Encourage industrial development to adapt to the consumption needs of individuals of different genders,age stages and families with different characteristics.