Research On The Impact Of My Country's Population Aging On Urban Economic Growt

Since 2000,China has entered an aging society,and the degree of population aging is becoming more and more serious.At the same time,the current situation of population aging is also very significant in urban areas.According to the data of the seventh census,the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and over in 149 cities in China has reached more than 14%,which has become a deep aging city.At present,the degree of population aging in the Yangtze River Delta region is one of the most serious areas in the country,and the degree of population aging is ahead of the national average.In recent years,the economic growth of the Yangtze River Delta region has generally slowed down,although the average growth rate is still higher than the national level,its leading edge is gradually weakening.Therefore,under the current situation of increasing population aging and the slowdown of urban economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta,this paper makes an in-depth study of the impact of population aging on urban economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta,explores the mechanism of population aging affecting urban economic growth and through which way aging has a positive or negative effect on economic growth.Based on the fifth,sixth and seventh census data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region and the economic data of the corresponding years,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of population aging on urban economic development,which is mainly divided into the following steps: First,this paper analyzes the current situation of population aging in the cities of the Yangtze River Delta region and expounds the causes of population aging in the region;Secondly,this paper further explores the mechanism of population aging on urban economic growth,and extends the variable of population aging to the economic growth model,theoretically explaining the mechanism of population aging on economic growth through labor supply,human capital,technological innovation and other transmission paths;Then,this paper estimates the overall effect of population aging on urban economic growth by establishing a panel econometric model,and analyzes the regional differences between economically developed and underdeveloped regions,while testing the nonlinear characteristics of the impact of population aging on urban economy by threshold effect model.Finally,this paper uses the intermediary effect analysis method to analyze the direction and size of the impact of population aging on economic growth through labor supply,human capital,household savings level,technological innovation,and other paths.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The impact of population aging on urban economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta is still positive at this stage,but this positive impact has obvious characteristics of a threshold effect,that is,with the deepening of the degree of population aging and the increasing negative impact on labor supply,its positive effect on urban economic growth has declined or even will produce negative effects.(2)Population aging has both positive and negative effects on urban economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta through various intermediary paths.On the one hand,population aging reduces the level of labor supply,and weakens the positive impact of population aging on urban economic growth through the masking effect of labor supply;On the other hand,population aging promotes residents’ savings,contributes to the accumulation of human capital,promotes technological innovation in cities,and indirectly promotes urban economic growth through savings,human capital,and technological innovation.(3)The aging of the population in underdeveloped cities hurts urban economic growth through the path of labor supply,and the intensity of hindering economic growth through this path is greater than that in economically developed cities;while the positive effect of the aging of the population in economically developed cities on urban economic growth is more significant than that in underdeveloped cities on the path of human capital and technological innovation.It can be seen that the more developed the urban economy is,the higher the level of human capital and technological innovation is,and the negative impact of population aging on its labor supply can be offset by the path of human capital and technological innovation.Finally,the increase of the proportion of the elderly population will promote the level of household savings in economically developed cities,and then promote urban economic growth through the intermediary effect of household savings,while the intermediary effect of population aging in economically underdeveloped cities on urban economic growth through household savings is not significant.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations for reference.Firstly,to enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of small and medium-sized cities,we should "retain" talents and "snatch" talents,to alleviate the negative impact on economic growth caused by the problem of migration and aging caused by population migration;Secondly,it is suggested that the local government should increase the support for the transformation of scientific research achievements into productive forces in economically developed cities,and increase the incentive policies for urban innovation to improve the level of urban innovation in economically underdeveloped cities.Thirdly,it is necessary to actively develop the elderly labor resources,adopt a gradual retirement policy to maintain the proportion of the working population,and vigorously develop the silver-haired industry;Fourthly,we should attach importance to the protection of the interests of women and optimize the fertility policy to prevent the aggravation of the aging phenomenon of fewer children.