Research On Risk Management Of X Apartment For The Elderly Project

In recent years,the popular elderly care real estate represented by elderly apartments has broad market development space.Domestic research on elderly care real estate has achieved some research results,but there are still many deficiencies,especially for the development risk of elderly apartments in second and third tier cities.The total investment of F City X elderly apartment project is 320 million yuan.At present,the preliminary demonstration,feasibility study and project construction have been completed,and the project is still in the construction and development period.Therefore,it is necessary to establish a risk control system for X elderly apartment project,accurately identify the main risks in the project,and propose countermeasures,in order to ensure the high-quality operation of X elderly apartment project.By means of literature review,this thesis sorts out the research results of risk management of apartment projects for the elderly,summarizes and sorts out the key points of risk management of apartment projects for the elderly,and provides the basis for the following article.Starting from the case of X elderly apartment project,combined with the general situation and basic elements of the project,the risk list of X project is obtained through interviews,questionnaires,expert methods,etc.,and the risk index system of X elderly apartment project is established.Based on the risk index system of X elderly apartment project,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the risk index of X project quantitatively,and the corresponding risk control strategies are proposed for the main risks.The research shows that the project expert team has identified six risk factors that have a great impact on the project through Delphi method,including capital risk,technical risk,management and operation risk,construction risk,policy risk and market risk.Combined with the questionnaire survey of the expert team,it is confirmed that the possibility of the existence of most risk factors is greater than 80%;Only the probability of tax risk,industrial policy and planning and design risk is less than 20%,but the probability of neglect is not greater than 90%,and the risk index system of X elderly apartment project is established,involving six secondary indicators and sixteen tertiary indicators,including capital risk,technical risk,management and operation risk,construction risk,policy risk and market risk;Using analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight of risk indicators,market risk is the first risk source,followed by capital risk and management and operation risk,with risk weights of 0.416,0.225 and 0.153 respectively.The overall score of the project through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is 0.1109,and the project is in the "low risk" category as a whole.Combined with risk control methods,corresponding risk control strategies and specific countermeasures are proposed for the above six risk factors.