| This paper substantiates the theoretical and methodological provisions,a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between Ukraine and China in the framework of the project "Silk Road Economic Belt"(SREB)and provides practical recommendations for improving economic effects of the strategic partnership of both countries.The tools for implementing economic interests were improved: bilateral trade agreements,customs and tariff regulation,the creation of bilateral Supervisory bodies,the use of the benefits of membership in international organizations,and the activities of private and state-owned companies in the Chinese market.The main tools for protecting and promoting Ukrainian interests are institutional factors,as well as the activities of private companies in strategic sectors of the economy in accordance with the strategy of foreign economic activity of Ukraine.The model of mutual trade between Ukraine and China is considered that is based on the analysis of factors affecting the trade turnover between the countries,which is used to develop scenarios for the development of foreign trade cooperation between Ukraine and China in the medium term.China is competing with Ukraine in the markets of developing countries,which is due to the policy of diversification of China’s trade partners,and this is a threat to Ukraine’s foreign economic security.Ukrainian economic interests in foreign trade relations with China were further developed in the direction of diversifying the structure of exports to China with a concentration on goods with higher added value(which is possible through the structural adjustment of the Ukrainian economy),while increasing energy cooperation as a strategic direction.The priorities of Ukraine and China in cooperation are considered.Ukraine views the partnership with the PRC as an interaction of two equal,sovereign subjects of international relations,independently determine their foreign policy,but coordinate efforts to solve acute international problems.China offers a high degree of coordination of decision-making and action,which provides for its leadership role.Ukraine puts forward a wide range of areas for industry cooperation with the priority of the development of knowledge-intensive areas,the main thing for the PRC is to get access to raw materials,provided that it is processed on Chinese territory and the supply of finished products made from it.Investigated that China’s strategy and its desire and skill to firmly defend its national interests and priorities in the SREB project.The successful implementation of the Chinese strategy in partnership and the long absence of such a strategy in Ukraine provides China with a great benefit from cooperation.The results of structural gravity model indicate the welfare changes caused by the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the US-China trade war on Ukraine.There are three possible scenarios: BRI in Ukraine;trade war between China and USA;BRI and trade war.According to the calculations,all countries benefit from reduced transport costs due to the BRI(Scenario 1).For Ukraine,a 15% reduction in transport costs means an increase in welfare,which can be considered as a 0.5% increase in GDP per capita.In a less optimistic scenario,if the reduction in transport costs is 5%,then GDP per capita growth is estimated at 0.16%,and in a more optimistic scenario,a 30% reduction in transport costs will add 1.19% to GDP per capita.The impact of the US-China trade war(Scenario 2),although it has a positive impact on Ukraine’s exports,still has a negative impact on welfare.With trade elasticity up to MFN(Most-Favored-Nation)-2.5 tariffs,tariffs of 25% will lead to a drop in GDP per capita for Ukraine by 0.6%,and in an even worse case,an increase in tariffs to 40% will reduce GDP by 0.9%.The model also allows to estimate the overall effect of the BRI and the trade war(tariffs at 25%,scenario 3).Only a reduction in trade spending of 20% or more will cover the decline in welfare from high tariffs between the US and China. |
PDF Full Text Request