Influence Of Film Box Office Expectation On Stock Return Of Film And Television Companies

At present,domestic studies on domestic movie box office expectations on stock price fluctuations of related listed companies are mostly qualitative analyses,with fewer empirical studies,and mostly from the macro perspective of the movie industry as a whole and the long-term stock market.However,with the continuous industrialization and marketization of movies,many movie companies have entered the capital market,and movie box office expectations have become an important factor affecting the stock prices of movie companies.Therefore,this paper aims to investigate the impact of domestic movie box office expectations on total box office and the corresponding short-term abnormal interest rate of investment in movie and TV company stocks based on efficient market theory,investor sentiment theory,and behavioral finance theory.This study first proposes research hypotheses based on existing research related to the factors influencing movie box office and investment company stocks,combines efficient market theory and behavioral finance theory,and establishes corresponding regression models through the event study method.By empirically analyzing the relationship between the expected box office of 107 films from 2011 to 2020 and their corresponding short-term abnormal stock interest rates of investment film and TV companies,the relationship between expected box office and total box office and the corresponding short-term abnormal stock interest rates of listed film and TV companies before and after the release of the films is verified.The results show that:(1)expected box office is positively related to total box office;(2)expected box office is positively related to the short-term abnormal stock returns of listed film and TV companies before the release of the film;and(3)expected box office is negatively related to the short-term abnormal stock returns of listed film and TV companies after the release of the film.Finally,it is analyzed and discussed by using 2 typical movies as case studies.This paper has some theoretical innovation in embarking on a study of the dynamic relationship between the expected box office of a movie and the short-term stock return of an investment company.In addition,the results of the empirical analysis of this study can,to a certain extent,reflect the law of the influence of movie expected box office on the abnormal stock returns of relevant film and television companies in the short term before and after the release,which can guide the market value management of listed film and television companies and their stock investors’trading decisions,as well as the insider trading supervision of relevant securities regulators in practice,and the content of the study has practical significance.