| In recent years,China’s population situation has gradually changed from the rapid expansion of the total population to the aging of the population structure,and the family planning policy of "encouraging a couple to have only one child" has shown that it is difficult to cope with the embarrassment of the new situation and new environment of social development,and at the same time,a series of problems such as the shortage of young and middle-aged labor force have brought negative impact on China’s sustainable development and strategic transformation.Therefore,timely adjustment of fertility policy will become an important measure for China’s population transformation and economic optimization.From November 2013 to May 2021,China has successively proposed the policies of "single two children","comprehensive two children" and "the implementation of the policy that a couple can have three children and supporting measures",trying to stimulate China’s population size through gradually relaxing the birth policy,but from the data of recent years,the gradual relaxation of birth restrictions has not fundamentally alleviated the downward trend of fertility and stimulated the willingness of people of childbearing age to have children.To this end,this study attempts to explore the public’s concerns and thoughts in the face of different fertility policies through three sub-studies,and explore which types of supporting policies can better stimulate the public’s fertility intention and improve the public’s fertility demand.Specifically,based on the theoretical model of planned behavior,Study 1 used the structural equation model to verify and analyze a variety of factors affecting the public’s fertility intention by conducting a questionnaire survey of 998 participants.Study 2 expands the model affecting public fertility intention by adding "policy tools" as antecedent variables,and understands the public’s perception and acceptance of different fertility policy tools and the impact of different policy tools on public fertility intentions.Study 3 complements and complements the public’s doubts and thoughts on fertility policies and fertility intentions in Study 1 and Study 2 through qualitative interviews with the help of focus groups.The results show that:(1)The planned behavior theory model can effectively predict the public’s fertility intention,and the positive attitude,subjective norms,and perceptual behavior control significantly predict the fertility intention,and the negative attitude of fertility significantly negatively predicts the fertility intention.(2)Policy tools have a significant impact on fertility intention.Among them,mandatory tools have a significant negative predictive effect on behavioral attitude,subjective norms,perceived behavior control and fertility intention,and ability tools have a significant positive predictive effect on behavioral attitude,perceived behavior control and fertility intention.Mandatory tools negatively affect fertility intentions through fertility attitudes,and ability tools positively affect fertility intentions through fertility attitudes.(3)By combing the interview content of the focus group,the researchers found that the public’s demand for fertility policy is mainly manifested in the following three aspects: first,the nature of the birth policy should be based on the premise of respecting the public’s fertility will,and cannot be forcibly restricted;Second,short-term weak subsidies are difficult to stimulate the public’s desire for childbirth,and long-term strong subsidies are more attractive;Third,the public expects to build all-round supporting facilities from "pregnancy" to "education" and the whole society.This study attempts to apply the extended model of planned behavior theory to explore the direct predictive effect of different types of policy tools on fertility intention,as well as the mediating role of behavioral attitudes,subjective norms and perceptual behavior control on fertility intentions,and finds that in the context of future "multi-child" childbirth,mandatory tools have little effect,motivational tools have insufficient stamina,informational tools need to go hand in hand,and ability tools can be expected in the future.Finally,the researchers put forward corresponding suggestions for the improvement of China’s fertility policy and the development of fertility research from the perspective of policy tools,and expects that the research results can provide certain theoretical support and practical ideas for the promotion of China’s fertility policy. |
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