Dynamic Allocation Optimization Of Emergency Medical Supplies Under Epidemic Spreading Environment

In recent years,the occurrence of various epidemics has caused a serious threat to people’s lives,dealt a serious blow to the national economy,and even jeopardized social stability and development.In order to mitigate the damage brought by the epidemic,it is necessary to actively carry out emergency rescue work and provide emergency medical supplies to various disaster areas.However,in the outbreak of the epidemic,emergency medical supplies are limited and in great demand,which cannot meet the needs of all disaster areas at one time.Secondly,with the change of epidemic transmission intensity and spread range,the number of people affected by different types of disaster will change dynamically,which leads to the dynamic change of the demand for emergency medical supplies.In addition,the distribution of materials needs to consider the current situation changes and the distribution results of the previous stage to make dynamic decisions.To sum up,this thesis takes material distribution as the research object,comprehensively considers the characteristics of multi-periodicity of material distribution,interaction between material distribution and epidemic spread,and dynamic decision-making of material distribution,and studies the dynamic distribution of emergency medical materials under the epidemic spread environment.Based on the three-level emergency logistics network consisting of multiple supply points,transit points and demand points,the interaction between the distribution of emergency medical supplies and the spread of the epidemic was systematically optimized from the perspective of dynamic planning,and the fairness,effectiveness and efficiency of the distribution of materials were comprehensively considered.To establish a dynamic distribution model of emergency medical supplies under multi-objective and multi-cycle epidemic spreading environment.First,on the basis of the classical infectious disease model,the warehouse of infected persons in treatment was added,and the SEIHR-D infectious disease spread model was established to predict the epidemic situation.Based on the predicted number of infected persons treated in each epidemic area,the dynamic time-varying demand for emergency medical supplies in different disaster areas was calculated.Then,the dynamic distribution model of emergency medical supplies was constructed.The allocation of emergency medical materials was divided into several dynamic and mutually influencing decision-making cycles.According to the real-time updated supply and demand data and the results of the allocation decision-making in the last cycle,the allocation of emergency medical materials in each cycle was finally determined with the minimum total envy value,minimum total material shortage and minimum total logistics cost as the allocation decision-making objectives.The tabu particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the model.Finally,an empirical study was conducted on the epidemic model of major infectious diseases in Hebei Province.4 supply points,5 transfer points and 11 demand points were selected to predict the trend of the epidemic in the next 40 days.The distribution cycle was every 5 days for emergency medical supplies for consumptive treatment.The results of the multi-cycle and multi-objective material dynamic distribution model constructed in this thesis are solved,and the results are analyzed from the aspects of distribution decision dynamics,fairness,effectiveness and efficiency.