Risk Prediction Model Construction For Predictive Factors Of Readmission In Patients With Arteriosclerosis Obliterans

Objective: To understand the readmission status of patients with arteriosclerosis obliterans(ASO),to explore the predictive factors of readmission in patients with ASO,and to construct a risk prediction model for readmission in patients with ASO.Methods: This study is a case-control study.Based on the medical record database,ASO discharged patients admitted to the Department of Vascular Thyroid Surgery,the First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University from January 1,2019 to October 30,2021 were screened according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria.According to whether the disease was readmitted after discharge,they were divided into a readmission group(90 people)and a non-readmission group(325 people).The medical records of the two groups were compared and univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to understand the readmission rate of ASO patients from discharge to 2021 and the factors affecting readmission.R language was used to construct a risk prediction nomogram model for the readmission of ASO patients.Receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC),Hosmer-Lemeshow tes,calibration curve,and decision curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and effectiveness of the risk prediction model for readmission of ASO patients.Results: A total of 415 ASO patients were included.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that systolic blood pressure [ OR = 1.015,95%CI(1.001,1.029)],smoking [ OR = 3.194,95%CI(1.653,6.173)],diabetes [ OR = 2.044,95%CI(1.164,3.588)],alkaline phosphatase [ OR = 1.006,95%CI(1.000,1.013)],and thrombin time [ OR = 0.765,95%CI(0.599,0.977)] were predictors of readmission in ASO patients(P < 0.05).The ROC curve analysis model predicted that the area under the readmission curve of ASO patients was 0.715,indicating that the model was effective.Conclusion: Systolic blood pressure,smoking,diabetes,alkaline phosphatase,and thrombin time are predictive factors for readmission in ASO patients.The ASO patient readmission risk prediction model based on the above predictors has good discrimination and effectiveness,which can be used to predict the readmission risk of ASO patients in the early stage,help clinical medical staff to carry out more accurate treatment and management,and improve the treatment effect and quality of life of patients.