Study On The Spatiotemporal Aggregation Of Novel Coronavirus Infection And The Relationship Between The Risk Of Novel Coronavirus Infection And Meteorological Factors And Preventive Measures In The United States

Objective: On 30 January 2020,the World Health Organization declared the Novel Coronavirus Infection(NCI)to be a public health emergency of international concern.The United States has only 4% of the world’s population,yet as of August 31,2021,the United States had more than 38 million confirmed cases of NCI and more than 635,000 deaths due to NCI,representing approximately 18% of confirmed cases and 14% of deaths worldwide.This paper aims to explore the spatiotemporal aggregation of NCI in the United States from January 21,2020 to June 30,2022,and the relationship between the risk of NCI and meteorological factors and epidemic prevention measures.Methods: 1.This study conducted descriptive statistics on the cumulative incidence and mortality of NCI in the United States during the study period;2.Global Moran’s I and local Moran’s I were used for spatial correlation analysis,and then cluster graphs of local indicators of spatial autocorrelation(LISA)were drawn.3.A spatiotemporal scan was conducted throughout the United States during the study period to explore the temporal,spatial and spatiotemporal clustering of NCI in the study area;4.To explore the relationship between NCI risk and meteorological factors and epidemic prevention measures by constructing Bayesian space-time Gaussian Predictive Process(GPP)model.Results: 1.The cumulative incidence of NCI ranged from 610.74 to 1247.04(per 100,000population),and Rhode Island showed the highest cumulative incidence of 1247.04(per100,000 population).The NCI cumulative death rate ranged from 3.51 to 14.28(per100,000),with Arizona showing the highest cumulative death rate at 14.28(per 100,000).2.The spatial correlation between incidence and mortality risk of NCI was significant.The LISA cluster map showed that the number of states involved in the high-high incidence cluster detected in August 2021 was the largest,which was 9.The highest number of highhigh mortality clusters detected in January 2022 involved nine states.3.The NCI incidence and mortality was detected with only one significant cluster in the time cluster,covering the entire United States,with the period of October 22,2020 to June 30,2022 and April20,2020 to June 30,respectively.Eleven significant spatial clusters of NCI incidence were detected,among which the main cluster was cluster 1,involving 9 states,with an RR of1.12.Seven significant NCI mortality spatial clusters were detected,among which the primary cluster was cluster 1,involving 9 states,with an RR of 1.26.Six significant spatiotemporal clusters of NCI incidence were detected,and the main cluster was cluster1,which lasted from December 27,2021 to February 3,2022,involving 9 states,with an RR of 7.13.Six significant spatiotemporal clusters of NCI mortality were detected,and the main cluster was cluster 1,which lasted from March 30,2020 to May 20,2020,involving 6states,with an RR of 6.95.4.Meteorological factors and epidemic prevention measures were included in this study.Among meteorological variables,maximum sustained wind speed had the greatest promoting effect on the risk of NCI,and among epidemic prevention measures,international travel measures had the greatest promoting effect on the risk of NCI,but the promoting effect of international travel measures was far greater than that of maximum sustained wind speed.Among the meteorological variables,the average wind speed had the greatest effect on reducing the risk of NCI,and the interurban population movement had the greatest effect on reducing the risk of NCI,but the effect of the average wind speed was much greater than that of the interurban population movement.Among the meteorological variables,maximum sustained wind speed had the greatest promoting effect on the death risk of NCI,and among the preventive measures,the need of vaccination had the greatest promoting effect on the death risk of NCI,but the promoting effect of the need of vaccination was far greater than that of maximum sustained wind speed.Among the meteorological variables,mean wind speed had the greatest effect on reducing the risk of death from NCI,and intercity movement had the greatest effect on reducing the risk of death from NCI,but the effect of mean wind speed was much greater than that of intercity movement.Conclusion: This study conducted spatiotemporal scanning of NCI in 50 states and Washington D.C.of the United States from January 21,2020 to June 30,2022,and found that the risk of incidence and mortality from NCI showed spatiotemporal,spatial and temporal clustering during the study period and in the study area.Subsequently,this study explored the relationship between the risk of morbidity and mortality of NCI and meteorological factors and epidemic prevention measures in the same study period and region.The results showed that meteorological factors and epidemic prevention measures were related to the risk of incidence and mortality of NCI.Compared with meteorological factors,epidemic prevention measures have a more significant effect on the risk of NCI,but the wind speed in meteorological variables is also crucial to the risk of NCI.