The Burden Of Hip Fracture Disease In China,1990-2019

Objective:The purpose of this study was to extract disease burden Data(incidence,prevalence,healthy life years lost due to disability)for hip fractures in Chinese population from the Global Health Data Exchange(GHDx)database from 1990 to 2019.This paper compares the changing trend of disease burden of hip fracture in our country 30 years laterally and compares the global level of disease burden of hip fracture,and predicts the disease burden of future 5 years,providing references for the prevention and control of hip fracture.Method:Firstly,the coupling point regression model was used to describe the overall trends of incidence,prevalence and Years Lived with Disability(YLDs)of hip fracture in all Chinese residents and different sex and age groups from 1990 to 2019.The outcome indexes were Annual Percent Change(APC)and Average Annual Percent Change(AAPC),respectively.Secondly,the age-period-cohort model was used to decompose the possible collinearity of age,period and birth cohort factors in the hip fracture burden data of Chinese residents in the past 30 years,and to evaluate the impact of different factors on the burden of disease.Finally,two kinds of time series models(exponential smoothing model and nonlinear autoregressive model)were used to predict the burden of hip fracture disease in Chinese population and different genders in the next five years.The accuracy of the model was measured by Rmean Squared Error(RMSE)and Mean Aabsolute Percentage error(MAPE).Results:The burden of disease of hip fracture was lower than the global level from 1990 to 2019,but the incidence rate and prevalence rate increased rapidly,and the healthy life years of disability loss decreased.The disease burden of residents of different genders and age groups is different.The disease burden of female residents is much higher than that of male residents,but the AAPC value is lower than that of male residents.The AAPC value of prevalence is slightly higher than that of male residents,and the AAPC value of YLDs is the same.There was an overall increase in morbidity in the age group over 40 years old,in the age group over 45 years old,and in YLDs in the age group over 80 years old.The results of age-period-cohort model showed that the age effect and the period effect were dominant in terms of morbidity and prevalence.In YLDs,the cohort effect dominates.The results of the time series model show that the disease burden of Chinese residents will continue to increase in the next five years.The exponential smoothing model obtained smaller RMSE and MAPE values on most of the prediction indicators,and the predicted values of each result were higher than those of the nonlinear autoregressive model.Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019,the disease burden of hip fracture in Chinese residents changed as follows:Firstly,the incidence and prevalence rate increased rapidly,which is worthy of attention;Secondly,the disease burden of female residents is more heavy than that of male residents and elderly residents than that of young residents,and they are the key groups in the prevention of hip fracture.Finally,the burden of hip fracture will continue to increase in the next 5 years.Measures should be taken from three aspects:prevention,the prevention of osteoporosis and falls is the most important;In terms of diagnosis and treatment,it is necessary to improve the medical level of primary hospitals,increase the supply of medical services and optimize the diagnosis and treatment process.In terms of rehabilitation,the government should increase support for the rehabilitation industry and give full play to the role of science and technology.