Study On Predicting Potential Suitable Area Of Acer Truncatum Bunge In Horqin Sand Land Based On Species Distribution Models

Acer truncatum Bunge is an excellent tree species to prevent and control desertification and improve the ecological environment.A.truncatum can be used as one of the preferred tree species to control soil desertification and restore vegetation in Horqin Sandy Land.Taking A.truncatum as the research object,using geographic distribution data,climate,soil,and terrain data,using four species distribution models(Max Ent,Bioclim,Domain,ENFA)and geographic information technology,predict the potential suitable distribution areas under different climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585)in the current and future 2030s(2021-2040)and 2050s(2041-2060).The environmental factors and response curves affecting the distribution of the suitable area of A.truncatum were determined,and the spatial pattern and centroid migration of A.truncatum resources were summarized.The research results are as follows:1.In model selection and accuracy evaluation,the AUC average values of the four models were ranked as Max Ent>Bioclim>Domain>ENFA,and the Max Ent model performed best in terms of accuracy and prediction range.Therefore,the Max Ent model was selected for the prediction of the suitable area of A.truncatum.In the comprehensive evaluation,the main environmental factors affecting the current geographical distribution of A.truncatum are the isothermness,the suitable threshold is 24.0～28.3;precipitation of driest month,the suitable threshold is 0.6～3.8mm;topsoil PH,the suitable threshold is 5.7～9.2;elevation,the suitable threshold is<683m;mean temperature of warmest quarter and annual precipitation,the suitable threshold is>20.9℃;annual precipitation,the suitable threshold is 314～591mm.2.At present,the total suitable areas of A.truncatum is 48944km~2.Kailu County,western Horqin Left Wing Rear Banner,southern Naiman Banner,and central Horqin Right Wing Middle Banner were mainly highly suitable areas.The moderately suitable areas were mainly distributed in southeastern Jarud Banner,Tongliao City,and southern Kulun Banner.The poorly suitable areas were scattered in western Horqin Sandy Land.In the future,the distribution of suitable areas for A.truncatum is roughly the same as the current prediction results of suitable areas,which are mainly distributed in central and eastern Horqin Sandy Land,and the west is mostly low and non-suitable areas.3.In the future,under the same climate scenario and different periods,the SSP126scenario has no advantageon the development of A.truncatum,while the SSP245scenario will have a positive impact on the development of A.truncatum with time,and the SSP585 scenario is the most sensitive to climate change;Under different climatic scenarios,the area of suitable areas in the 2030s shows an increasing trend,while the area of suitable areas in the 2050s first increases and then decreases with the deepening of climate warming.Based on the current distribution range of A.truncatum suitable areas,the retention rate of suitable areas in the future is relatively high,and the area of lost areas is positively correlated with the growth of time and the increase of climate warming degree.The increased areas are mainly located in the northwest of the current suitable area.4.From the current to the early stages of the three climate scenarios in the future,the centroid migration trend of A.truncatum is northwest,and the direction of centroid migration shows no obvious law with time change.The centroid of A.truncatum has changed in the longitude and latitude directions,but the east-west migration amplitude of the centroid in the longitude is greater than the north-south migration in the latitude,and the migration trajectory is mainly located in the north and west of the current centroid.5.At present,the optimal planting area of A.truncatum in the sandy land is1938km~2,which is mainly distributed in central and western Horqin Left Wing Rear Banner,northern Naiman Banner,and northern Kulun Banner,as well as the border area between Kailu County,Jarud Banner,Ar Horqin Banner and Horqin Left Wing Middle Banner.In the future of 2030s and 2050s,the range of the optimal planting area for A.truncatum in the sand will decrease compared with the current period area in each county.