| The environmental problems,such as land loss and desertification,seriously affect the sustainable development of economy.The introduction and afforestation shrub species and improvement of vegetation coverage of barren land have been the focus of soil and water conservation work.Atriplex canescens is an evergreen or quasi-evergreen shrub species,which is very valuable for the improvement of degraded land in desert and semi-desert region.A.canescens has been planted in China for more than 30 years.Although a large number of experiments have been carried out to study its planting techniques,the planting potential of A.canescens in China is still unclearly.In order to solve the above problems,we used maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)to predict the potential distribution changes of A.canescens in China under current and future climate scenarios based on 699 global occurrence records.The main environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed,and a planting zoning maps of A.canescens were drawn,providing references for introduction and cultivation of A.canescens.The main results are as follows:(1)Our simulated global MaxEnt model for A.canescens got an AUC value of0.948,indicating that the model constructed in this study meets the"excellent"standard.It suggests that the simulate suitable habitat of A.canescens can be used to study the cultivation regionalization of A.canescens.(2)The important environmental factors limiting the suitability of A.canescens are potential evapotranspiration rate,annual biological temperature,cold index,and annual temperature range,with a cumulative contribution of 77.5%.Among them,the potential evapotranspiration rate is the most limiting factor impact on the distribution of A.canescens,with a contribution rate of 29%.(3)The climatic niche width of A.canescens in the core suitable habitat is from1.18 to 25.93 for potential evapotranspiration rates,5.98 to 22.52°C for annual biological temperature,-43.35 to-0°C for coldness index,and 24.12 to 46.21°C for annual temperature range.(4)Under current climate conditions,there are 134.65×10~4km~2suitable habitat area for cultivation of A.canescens,accounting for 14%of the land area in China,which is mainly distributed in the central and western regions of China.The core suitable areas mainly located in provinces such as Shaanxi,Qinghai,and Gansu.This indicates that A.canescens has a wide range of adaptability in the central and western regions of China,and has the potential for introduction,cultivation,and promotion.(5)Under future climate conditions,the centroid of the suitable habitat of A.canescens will shift eastward at a speed of 41-103km/10a.In the future,the suitable habitat area of A.canescens will decrease to 13.23-61.8×10~4km~2,a reduction of54-90%in the suitable habitat area compared to the current climate conditions,indicating that the introduction and cultivation of A.canescens in China is facing the challenge of climate change. |
