Measurement And Simulation Study Of Agricultural Green Development Index In Jiangxi Province

With the development of science and technology,agricultural machinery and industrial synthetic chemicals have been heavily invested in agriculture,and in the process,China’s agriculture has benefited from the massive input of agricultural production factors to achieve rapid development.As the same time,the negative effects of the long-established "speed over quality" approach to production are becoming increasingly evident.On the one hand,China’s agricultural development faces the double constraints of the irrational use of agricultural resources and the destruction of ecological environmental;on the other hand,as China’s agriculture transforms towards modernization,the main contradiction in agriculture has changed from a total shortage to a structural contradiction,and there is an oversupply gap between the supply and demand for high-quality agricultural products.Agricultural development under the traditional economic growth model is not sustainable.In the context of the "brown economy" with high energy consumption and high pollution,it is urgent to build a green and coordinated development path of "agricultural resource-ecological environment-social economy",and Jiangxi Province,as a major agricultural product production base,is uniquely positioned to develop green agriculture.In this regard,actively exploring the law of coupled and coordinated development of agricultural resourceecological environment-social economy in Jiangxi Province can provide a theoretical basis for agricultural green development.Taking Jiangxi Province as an example,this paper explores the coupling relationship and its spatio-temporal deduction pattern of agricultural green development between Jiangxi Province and 11 cities of Jiangxi Province from 2008 to 2020 by combining the synergistic development relationship between the three systems of agricultural resources,ecological environment and social economy and constructing an agricultural green development evaluation index system with 20 indicators in 3 dimensions of agricultural resources,ecological environment and social economy,and using The system simulation model,the Vensim PLE system,was used to predict and analyze the trend of agricultural green development in Jiangxi Province from 2021 to 2030.The results show that:(1)the overall green development of agriculture in Jiangxi Province from 2008 to 2020 is positive,and the coupling is coordinated and orderly;(2)the green development of agriculture in 11 municipalities in Jiangxi Province from 2008 to 2020 is steadily increasing,and the coupling is coordinated and orderly;(3)the level of green development of agriculture in Jiangxi Province from 2021 to 2030 is expected to continue to improve,and the regulation and promotion of seven scenario is significant.Compared with single-factor development,multifactor coordinated development has a greater effect on promoting the green development level of agriculture in Jiangxi Province.Based on the analysis of the research results,the following countermeasures are proposed:(1)Seek to maximize synergistic agricultural resource-ecological environmentsocial economy development and develop regionally differentiated policies to fill in the gaps in the process of agricultural green development.(2)The government,agricultural producers,consumers and other multi-dimensional subjects jointly promote green agricultural development.(3)Promote green agricultural development by regulating effective paths from agricultural production methods,agricultural science and technology innovation,economic development,consumption habits and policy support.