Vulnerability Assessment On Forest Fire In Northeast China

Forest fire is one of the most frequent,difficult to deal with and most serious natural disasters in the world.Risk assessment is the main direction of forest fire research,focusing on the occurrence of forest fire,but ignoring the vulnerability attribute of disaster bearing system under the influence of forest fire.Vulnerability is the nature of an object’s vulnerability to negative influences,which is a collection of concepts such as exposure,sensitivity and adaptability.Therefore,the study on forest fire vulnerability formed by the combination of forest fire and vulnerability is helpful to provide reference for regional disaster prevention and reduction work,and has guiding significance for promoting harmonious development of human-land relationship,improving the quality of regional development and promoting sustainable development.Northeast China has high forest coverage and abundant fuel loads.Moreover,with the frequent occurrence of global warming and extreme weather in recent years,the fire prevention situation has become more severe,posing a great threat to the regional ecosystem and socio-economic system.Therefore,this paper takes Northeast China as the research area.Firstly,this paper selects indicators based on three dimensions of exposure,sensitivity and adaptability,forms a vulnerability assessment index system that conforms to the characteristics of Northeast China and forest fire background,and establishes a spatial database of forest fire vulnerability index in Northeast China.Secondly,three weighting models are selected,namely,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)which reflects expert knowledge,entropy method which is determined by the degree of data variation,and improved model of principal component analysis(PCA)which considers spatial heterogeneity-geographical weighted PCA.Thirdly,forest fire vulnerability index was calculated by using addition,multiplication,division and square root of four vulnerability mathematical models.Finally,the evaluation results of different models were compared at the spatial and data levels,and the AHP-Addition model was superposed with the GWPCA-Addition model.Finally,a stable coupling evaluation result of forest fire vulnerability was obtained,which was both subjective and objective and highly interpretable.Based on the evaluation results,the spatial analysis is carried out,and the main conclusions are as follows:(1)87.05% of the forest land in Northeast China is vulnerable to forest fire,and the extremely vulnerable areas occupy a small area,mainly distributed in the hilly platform of western Liaoning,the southern margin of the northern part of the Greater Khingan Mountains,the northern margin of the eastern part of the Lesser Khingan Mountains,and Changbai Mountains.(2)The average value of forest fire vulnerability index in Northeast China was 39.85,and there were 22 prefecture-level cities with forest fire vulnerability index values exceeding the average,among which the highest 3 were Chaoyang,Fuxin and Baishan.In terms of the proportion of vulnerable areas,Chaoyang City is the only prefecture-level administrative region with extremely vulnerable level.(3)Forest fire vulnerability has obvious spatial correlation at the global scale and local scale.The hot spot area accounts for 13.21% of the total area of Northeast China,mainly distributed in western Liaoning,the eastern part of Lesser Khingan Mountains,and the low hilly area from Songnen Plain to Khingan Mountains and Changbai Mountains.(4)The contribution of the three dimensions to forest fire vulnerability varies among different geographical regions.Among them,the dimension pattern that most accords with the root cause of forest fire vulnerability is "High Exposure-High Sensitivity-Low Adaptability",with an area ratio of 17.99%,mainly distributed in the hilly terrace in Northeast China.In this paper,forest fire vulnerability assessment in Northeast China was conducted from the whole process of clear connotation of forest fire vulnerability,establishment of evaluation index system,establishment of evaluation model and spatial analysis,which provided a reference for regional fire prevention and disaster reduction work.