| Our country has the largest live pig market in the world,the supply of live pig and pork consumption ranks the first in the world.Steady and healthy development of pig industry is of great significance to ensuring our food security.On October27,2020,the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced that the largescale rate of pigs will reach 53%,and expects that the large-scale rate of pigs in our country will reach about 58% by 2022.Along with the continuous improvement of pig industrialization,integration and marketization degree,the inherent natural risk and market risk of pig market are increasing at the same time of driving employment and production value increase.A major biological outbreak of African swine fever(ASF)broke out in China in August 2018.The epidemic affected the original pig industry chain,changed the supply pattern of pigs in China to a certain extent,promoted the rapid expansion of the scale of listed pig enterprises,improved the position of listed pig enterprises in the pig market,and intensified the volatility of the stock yield of listed pig enterprises.In this context,it is of great significance to study the impact of African swine fever epidemic on Chinese listed pig enterprises to promote the healthy development of pig industry in the post-epidemic era.In this paper,the classic literature on stock yield factors and major public emergencies impact on the stock market was firstly sorted out,related concepts and theories were explained and elaborated,and relevant problems were put forward in light of the current situation of the development of our pig industry.Then research design was carried out on the possible problems,and research methods and research content needed to be verified.In this paper,the live pig industry chain was divided into upper,middle and downstream sectors,and the major event nodes of the African swine fever epidemic were sorted out and strictly screened.The short-term event study method was adopted to analyze the impact of negative news at the early stage of the epidemic and good news at the end of the epidemic on the upper,middle and downstream parts of the pig industry chain.The research results show that: first,the fluctuation range of average abnormal return rate and average cumulative abnormal return rate of enterprises under the influence of good news are mostly greater than that of bad news,that is,the impact of good news on enterprises is greater than that of bad news,and good news is easier to be perceived by the market.Second,the impact of the epidemic on different types of listed pig companies is not the same.Under the impact of the event,the average abnormal rate of return of the midstream breeding sector was the strongest,the average abnormal rate of return of the downstream slaughtering and processing sector was the weakest,and the average abnormal rate of return of the upstream feed animal protection sector was between the two.Thirdly,the epidemic of African swine fever has a significant impact on the stock returns of listed pig companies in the short term,and there is a time-lag effect in the volatility of the return of listed pig companies.The return fluctuations caused by external shocks generally lag about three periods,but the impact gradually decreases with time.The research results of this paper provide a new Angle for the study of price spillover effect of Chinese pig industry chain,improve the results of pig market research,and provide a solid theoretical basis for Chinese pig market risk management and regulatory development,with important practical reference value... |
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