Study On The Influence Of Agrometeorological Disasters On Grain Production And Countermeasures In Shanxi Province

In recent years,due to intensified climate change and frequent extreme weather events,food production faced many unstable factors,making it harder to ensure the stability of the food supply chain.As a big agricultural province,Shanxi Province suffers frequent agricultural meteorological disasters,which harm food production and threaten food security.The study on the impact of agrometeorological disasters on grain production and their prevention and countermeasures has important practical significance for stabilizing grain production,ensuring food security,and maintaining the healthy and stable development of agriculture in Shanxi,providing an optimization path with possible reference values for the government to prevent and respond to agrometeorological disasters.The study was supported by the time series data related to agrometeorological disasters and grain production in Shanxi Province from 2001 to 2019.First of all,The current situation of grain production and agrometeorological disaster prevention and response in Shanxi Province was analyzed,focusing on the introduction and analysis of the grain production capacity from the aspects of geographical and climatic conditions,cultivated land conditions,and the overall situation of grain production;Including drought,flood,freezing disaster,wind and hail disaster and other disasters,the general situation of agrometeorological disasters was analyzed,and the occurrence trend and basic characteristics of agrometeorological disasters in Shanxi Province are summarized;This paper introduced and analyzed the current situation of agricultural meteorological disaster prevention and response work in Shanxi Province from two aspects of laws and regulations,system and mechanism.Initial results have been achieved in prevention and response,but there are still some problems,and the impact of disasters on food production cannot be ignored.Secondly,the impact of agrometeorological disasters on grain production capacity was theoretically analyzed in the three manifestations.Double logarithmic function and grey correlation analysis were used for empirical analysis,and the conclusion was drawn: for a long time,the production elasticity of agrometeorological disasters was-0.1,which harmed grain production capacity;The order of grey correlation degree between disaster-suffering area ratio and various factors is agricultural labor,planting area,agricultural machinery use,fertilizer,and pesticide use,irrigation water consumption,financial support for agriculture,and agricultural economic basis.Thirdly,combined with the grey correlation between the disaster-suffering area ratio and various factors,the agrometeorological disasters prevention and response in Shanxi Province were analyzed,which still exist some problems,such as the loss of agricultural labor,the lack of awareness of agricultural meteorological disaster prevention,the imperfect construction of agricultural infrastructure,the urgent need to improve emergency management capabilities,the monitoring and early warning service capabilities to be improved,and the imperfect post-disaster recovery guarantee system.Finally,we put forward relevant optimization paths and improvement suggestions from seven aspects:we should cultivate new types of professional farmers and improve the quality of agricultural workers;Improve agricultural infrastructure construction and improve agricultural resilience;Promote agricultural production trusteeship and develop large-scale production;Improve disaster command and emergency response systems and improve emergency management capabilities;Improve the construction of monitoring and early warning systems,and improve monitoring and early warning service capabilities;Strengthen agricultural science and technology support and improve the construction of disaster prevention technology system;Increase investment and support,and improve the post-disaster recovery guarantee system.