| Over the past century,global warming has become an unstoppable trend,affecting the global distribution of water and heat,as well as soil microorganisms.Climate change poses a significant threat to biodiversity and has a considerable impact on plant growth and reproduction.Cathaya argyrophylla is a rare and endangered plant species native to China,with a narrow distribution range.It holds significant scientific,ornamental,ecological,and timber values,and its conservation is crucial for preserving biodiversity.This study uses global warming as the research background and examines Cathaya argyrophylla distribution data,environmental factors,future climate data,and conservation area data.Using SPSS software,the MaxEnt model,and ArcGIS software,predicted the potential distribution area of Cathaya argyrophylla,identified the key environmental factors and optimal growth thresholds,and predicted the potential distribution area under different future years and pathways.Furthermore,we analyzed the key factors and changing trends.Based on the predictions,we performed a protection gap analysis of the potential distribution area to provide a data foundation and scientific basis for Cathaya argyrophylla conservation.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Precipitation during the driest month and downward ultraviolet radiation contribute 66.1%and 14.6%,respectively,to Cathaya argyrophylla growth,making them the most critical environmental factors.Suitable environmental conditions for Cathaya argyrophylla survival include a precipitation range of 18.03-215.63 mm during the driest month and a downward ultraviolet radiation range of 1070728-1437806 W·m.(2)Under current climate conditions,the core suitable area for Cathaya argyrophylla is 13.25×104km2,accounting for 1.38%of China’s land area,while the generally suitable area is 74.43×104km2,accounting for 7.73%of the land area.The potential distribution range of Cathaya argyrophylla in China is relatively small,and the core suitable area is narrow.The core suitable area is mainly located in some mountainous regions of Chongqing,Hunan,Hubei,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Guizhou,and Taiwan.(3)Under three future climate scenarios,the core suitable area of Cathaya argyrophylla expands,mainly in Yunnan,Zhejiang,Fujian,and Guizhou provinces.Moreover,the medium development scenario(SSP2-4.5)is more suitable for Cathaya argyrophylla growth and reproduction in the future.(4)In the nine predictions for 2050,2070,and 2090 under the SSP 1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,bio 16(precipitation during the driest month)has the highest contribution rate,making it the most critical factor influencing the future distribution range of Cathaya argyrophylla.Additionally,bio6(minimum temperature of the coldest month)and altitude appear more frequently and have higher contribution rates,making them important factors affecting the future distribution of Cathaya argyrophylla.(5)Under current climate conditions,the potential distribution area of Cathaya argyrophylla within natural conservation areas is relatively small,with a low proportion.In the future,the area and proportion of the potential distribution area of Cathaya argyrophylla within natural conservation areas will increase.However,the overall protection gap area of the potential distribution area will remain large,particularly in the southern regions most suitable for Cathaya argyrophylla distribution,where natural conservation areas are characterized by a large number of small areas. |
