| After the reform of collective forest right system,non-timber forest-based economy has become an important pillar industry in the development of forestry.Developing non-timber forest-based economy can promote green growth and adjustment of forestry industry structure,improve the output of forest land and increase the income of forest farmers.The analysis of the temporal and spatial characteristics and influencing factors of the non-timber forest-based economy economic development in various provinces in China has important practical and long-term strategic significance.In order to make the results more authentic,this paper uses the gross regional product price index(last year equal to 100)to subtract the data of under-forest economic output value of Each province in China from 2011 to 2020,and converts them into the data of non-timber forest-based economy output value of each province calculated at 2011 prices.Time series analysis,Theil coefficient,variation coefficient and spatial self-correlation analysis were used to analyze the spatial and temporal differences of undergrowth economic development in China.Based on the results of Theil coefficient,variation coefficient and Moran index,the temporal and spatial characteristics of non-timber forest-based economy development in China from2011 to 2020 were analyzed by using two methods: regional(eastern,western and central)and provincial(30 provinces),and the differences of non-timber forest-based economy development in China were explored from a multidimensional perspective.On the basis of spatial self-correlation analysis,static and dynamic spatial panel econometric models were established respectively to study the factors influencing the development level of undergrowth economy in China from the spatial perspective.Time series analysis shows that the total output value of China’s non-timber forest-based economy from 2011 to 2020 continues to increase from 8.689537 million yuan in 2011 to100,533065 million yuan in 2020,and the top three provinces are Zhejiang,Guangxi and Sichuan.The Theil coefficient and variation coefficient show that the differences of undergrowth economic output value in China are increasing in both regional and provincial methods,and the results of the two methods have the same trend.From the perspective of spatial self-correlation,the development of undergrowth economy in all provinces of China is unbalanced.From the perspective of spatial self-correlation of the whole 30 provinces of China,it shows two characteristics of high aggregation and low aggregation,but the spatial selfcorrelation among some provinces is strong.From the perspective of spatial difference,the economic development of undergrowth in China from 2011 to 2020 shows a trend of gradual increase in both methods,and the trend of different methods is the same.The spatial lag model and spatial error model are more suitable,which explains the rationality of choosing the spatial Dubin model in this study.Analysis of influencing factors shows that there is a significant spatial effect in China’s non-timber forest-based economy development.The non-timber forestbased economy development is not only affected by the explanatory variables of the province,but also by the explanatory variables of neighboring provinces.A good development of the non-timber forest-based economy in neighboring provinces will stimulate the development of the non-timber forest-based economy in the province.Among the variables influencing the development of non-timber forest-based economy,the factors that have a significant role in promoting the development of non-timber forest-based economy include the area of forest land,forest coverage,power consumption,regional precipitation,regional GDP of neighboring provinces and investment in the development of non-timber forest-based economy and industry;The factors that have a significant inhibitory effect include the direct economic loss of the province and the per capita disposable income of neighboring provinces.Therefore,some suggestions are put forward,such as accelerating the construction of industrial aggregation model of non-timber forest-based economy,using natural resources scientifically and flexibly to develop characteristic non-timber forest-based economy,increasing the investment of related departments in non-timber forest-based economy,and strengthening the protection of forestland resources. |
