Research On Model Simulation And Dynamic Prediction Of Water Environment Carrying Capacity In The Tongyang River Basin

With the rapid development of urbanization,water environment problems such as shortage of water resources,serious water pollution,and destruction of water ecological balance have become increasingly serious,and have gradually become key issues that threaten people’s healthy life and sustainable social and economic development.There are many large-scale studies such as cities,districts and counties at home and abroad,but there is a lack of small-scale studies on villages and towns.For example,to carry out the simulation and dynamic prediction of water environment carrying capacity,the details are as follows.Water environment carrying capacity is an important indicator reflecting the relationship between water environment and social and economic activities,which can help human beings to effectively understand and solve water environment problems.However,there is still no unified concept of water environment carrying capacity.Based on this,this paper first summarizes the most representative views at home and abroad,puts forward a universal concept of water environment carrying capacity,and clarifies its connotation and main influencing factors;Secondly,based on the collected data and survey results,we will make an in-depth understanding of the current situation,existing problems and development trends of the water environment system,such as population,economy,water supply and demand balance,water use structure,and water pollution discharge in the Tongyang River Basin.and analysis;based on the concept of water environment carrying capacity and the analysis results of the actual situation of the Tongyang River Basin,the sensitivity analysis method was used to construct the index system,and the SD model of the water environment carrying capacity of the Tongyang River Basin was established.After the validity and reliability of the model,it was found that The model meets the research needs;finally,the concept of elasticity is cited,from the perspective of governance,including topdown government investment,top-down government control and bottom-up collective action impact design status quo continuation,socio-economic constraints,resources and environment The four development scenarios of protection type and comprehensive coordination type are used to carry out the prediction and regulation simulation analysis of the water environment carrying capacity of the Tongyang River Basin.Analysis of the current situation continuation scenario simulation results found that if the development in accordance with the conventional model,the future water resources of the Tongyang River Basin will not be able to support the social and economic development of the Basin.After 2027,the red line of water resources utilization will be exceeded.By 2035,the total water consumption will reach 124 million m3,which will double the average annual water supply in the Tongyang River Basin.In the future,there will be a serious overload of water resources.In terms of water use structure,agricultural water accounts for 80%,and the proportion continues to rise as the cultivated area expands.Taking Class III water as the standard,the COD water environment carrying capacity index ranges from 0.73-1.20,ammonia nitrogen is 0.72-1.09,total phosphorus is 0.79-1.27,and total nitrogen is 0.83-1.54.The water environment will also be overloaded in the future.The water environmental carrying capacity index of total nitrogen has always been higher than that of the other three pollutants,and total nitrogen has become the primary limiting factor of water environmental carrying capacity in the Tongyang River Basin.In terms of pollutant discharge structure,domestic sewage is the main source of pollution.Comparing and analyzing the simulation results of the four development scenarios,it is found that compared with the status quo continuation scenario,the three governance scenarios have water-saving effects,and the comprehensive coordination scenario has the most significant watersaving effect.By 2035,the total water demand will be 53 million m3,which is 1.3 times lower than the current continuation-type total water demand,and the utilization of water resources will no longer be overloaded.For COD,ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus,the water environment carrying capacity increases the most under the resource environment protection scenario.For total nitrogen,the water environment carrying capacity has been improved the most under the comprehensive coordination scenario,but there is not much difference compared with the resource environment protection scenario.The pollutants are no longer overloaded,but the pollutant indices still show an upward trend,indicating that in the There are still potential dangers in future water environment problems,and the management of water environment cannot be relaxed.By evaluating and dynamically predicting the water environment carrying capacity of the Tongyang River Basin,and simulating and analyzing the improvement effect of each governance scenario on the water environment carrying capacity,according to the simulation results,put forward targeted industrial development suggestions and measures to improve the water environment carrying capacity.The paper has 25 figures,8 tables,and 112 references.