Analysis Of Water Resource Carrying Capacity In Irrigated Areas Based On The Concept Of Green Development

Irrigation area is an important base of commodity grain,cotton and oil in China,which plays a vital role in ensuring national food security,protecting ecological environment,developing regional economy and building modern agriculture.In the 21 st century,water shortage will become one of the important factors restricting the sustainable and stable development of China's agriculture and rural economy and endangering food security.Traditional irrigation district construction in order to improve the irrigation benefit as the main target,ignoring the interests behind with excessive consumption of resources and serious environmental pollution problems,such as a sharp drop in water resources,irrigation water use efficiency is not high,causes the waste of water is serious,soil,irrigation area decreased self-purification ability such as overdraft both in the irrigation area development space and development ability.With the concept of green development put forward in China,high-quality green development has become the new development pursuit of all regions.It is of great significance to explore the development ideas of irrigated areas with the green development mode,to improve the development space of irrigated areas,to promote the sound development of the irrigated areas,to realize the harmony of regional people and water,to achieve the harmony of regional environment,and to promote the regional economic and social development.Based on the idea of realizing green development in irrigated areas,this paper studies the carrying capacity of water resources in irrigated areas.Baoji gorge irrigation district in shaanxi province as an example,by using system dynamics method to build irrigation area water resources carrying capacity system dynamics model,simulated the actual system behavior by means of model simulation,in adhere to the green development situation of irrigation water supply and demand situation in 2017-2030,to study the water resources carrying condition,mainly has the following research results:(1)the system dynamics model of water resource carrying capacity in baojixia irrigation area was established by using the system dynamics method,and the validity test was passed.The system of baojixia irrigation area is a complex giant system.The research on the carrying capacity of water resources in the irrigation area with the method of system dynamics can simulate the internal structure and behavior dynamics of the complex system of "water resources-society-economy-ecological environment" in the irrigation area.(2)based on 2017 years,according to the crop planting structure,composition,water irrigation area was simulated under different frequency of irrigation water supply and demand in 2017-2030,the results show that according to the status quo of the development situation,in the wet water(50%)cases(25%)of the peace in the irrigation area water supply relative can satisfy the requirement of irrigation water requirement,but water loss since 2028;However,in the case of dry water(75%),water shortage is more obvious,which will occur from 2026.When considering green development of irrigated areas and increasing water demand,water resources become more and more significant constraints on the development of irrigated areas,and the contradiction between supply and demand in irrigated areas can be alleviated through measures such as water saving,adjustment of industrial structure,and consideration of external water diversion.(3)the model of water resource carrying capacity of irrigated areas is constructed.Based on the development models of green and high quality development of irrigated areas,"suitable for grain,suitable for agriculture,suitable for agriculture" and "suitable for water development",five control schemes are set in consideration of the development scenarios of irrigated areas,such as ecological water demand,water-saving,industrial structure adjustment and external water diversion.The simulation results show that scheme 5,on the basis of ensuring the green development model of the irrigated areas,can improve the carrying capacity of water resources of the irrigated areas through reasonable control measures such as water saving,industrial structure adjustment and external water diversion.(4)the water resource carrying index calculation model was established in 2025 and 2030 years for planning,analysis and calculation were 25%,50% and 75% bearing size,frequency of irrigation area water resources water resources for irrigation district population,GDP and carrying index of the irrigated area,the results show that the scheme 5 to improve irrigation area under the green development of carrying capacity of the most significant,irrigation water carry irrigation district economic development of the population.