| As a pillar industry of animal husbandry in China,pig farming not only meets the growing demand for meat in China,but also causes serious agricultural sources and water pollution.With the progress of the times,industrial development can not only satisfy the growth of industrial capacity,but also pay attention to environmental protection.During the Tenth Five-Year Plan and the Eleventh FiveYear Plan,the state has put forward some policy targets of reducing 10% of environmental pollution.Under the background of pollution reduction,local governments and the public often restrict and supervise pig production by means of policies and complaints in all regions,especially in economically developed areas.As a result,the distribution of pig production has changed,gradually shifting from coastal economically developed areas to underdeveloped areas.But we can imagine that when the environment deteriorates or the income level of the underdeveloped areas requires higher environmental quality,will we face the embarrassing problem of where to go for the pig breeding industry?In order to solve the contradiction between pork demand and environmental constraints,and find the sustainable development path of pig breeding industry.First of all,we need to explain whether environmental policy or income level promotes the change of production layout of pig farming industry in the context of pollution reduction.The study of this problem not only has important theoretical significance for us to explain and verify the Environmental Kuznets Curve and Pollution Heaven Hypothesis,but also has important policy reference significance for promoting environmental governance and healthy development of pig breeding industry.Firstly,this study uses descriptive statistics to show the economic development situation,the regional distribution of pig production and the implementation of environmental regulation in China;Secondly,we construct a theoretical model including pig production,environmental policy and income level to explain the relationship between variables,and analyze the reasons for the unsteady conclusions of previous empirical studies.On this basis,we select the data of income level,pork price,breeding cost and other factors that affect pig production from 2001 to 2010,and a policy which was The Central Government promulgated in 2005 that the environmental quality in some pilot provinces should be linked to the performance appraisal of local government officials as a natural policy shocks.After that,we designed and used the non-parametric IV estimation with discontinuous variables and the synthetic control method to estimate the dynamic relationship between income level and pig production,and the policy effect of environmental policy on pig production.The results showed that there was industry transfer under the guidance of environmental regulations in pig farming,that is to say,the Pollution Heaven Hypothesis exists in pig farming.and after controlling the interference between the two factors,the relationship between per capita income level and pig production in the region presented an inverted U-shaped relationship,that is,there was also an Environmental Kuznets Curve in pig farming,which would exclude the more polluting pig farming industry after the increase of regional income level.On the whole,there are obvious environmental policy effects in Zhejiang Province.That is to say,there is also the transfer of pig industry caused by environmental policy.And through empirical research,we can confirm that nonlinear,endogeneity,neglecting the mutual influence of income and policy,and model selection are the important reasons for the unstable conclusions of previous empirical research.Therefore,we put forward the following policy recommendations: first,the central government should establish a complete environmental regulation system for pig farming and establish an ecological compensation mechanism for pig farming;secondly,guide pig industry to transfer to areas with relatively good production resources endowment and environmental carrying capacity,properly provide environmental subsidies to promote environmental protection innovation of pig industry;thirdly,we should avoid the "one-size-fits-all" environmental policy and use diversified means of environmental governance to ensure the environmental governance of pig farming and the stability of pork supply. |
