Research On The Valuation Of Photovoltaic Enterprises Based On Real Options Method

The "14th Five-Year Plan" puts forward the goal of high-quality development of renewable energy in China.Renewable energy represented by solar photovoltaic provides important support to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.As the main body of solar PV industry,PV enterprises play an indispensable role in promoting the reasonable adjustment of social resources structure and reducing the production and living costs of enterprises and residents.Due to the characteristics of PV enterprises such as unstable cash flow and many factors influencing value,and the defects of the current evaluation methods such as unreasonable cash flow forecast,the value estimation of PV enterprises is not accurate enough.At the same time,the demand for mergers and acquisitions and investment and financing of photovoltaic enterprises presents the status quo of large volume and high price,and the fair assessment of their value becomes the basic guarantee for the orderly development of photovoltaic enterprises.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the valuation of PV enterprises.Based on theories of enterprise value and real options,this paper analyzes the characteristics of PV enterprise value and options,considers the factors influencing PV enterprise value,collects and collates the data of 38 PV listed companies including "East Sunrise" from 2012 to 2021,and constructs a PV enterprise value assessment model to estimate the enterprise value of the above-mentioned companies.The reasonableness of the model is evaluated based on the deviation of the assessed value from the market value and the sensitivity of the model parameter changes to the enterprise value,and finally,relevant research conclusions and countermeasure suggestions are drawn.The main research contents of this paper are as follows: Chapter 1 analyzes the background and significance of the study of PV enterprises,compares the literature on enterprise value assessment and real options development and application at home and abroad,proposes the research contents and methods of this paper,and introduces the research framework of this paper;Chapter 2 is the theoretical foundation,which mainly describes the enterprise value theory,enterprise value assessment methods and real options theory;Chapter 3 is the selection of PV enterprise value assessment methods.Chapter 3 is the selection of PV enterprise value assessment methods,which mainly analyzes the current situation of PV industry development in China,the characteristics of PV enterprise value and its option characteristics,and compares the enterprise value assessment methods,and then discusses the applicability of the real option method to PV enterprise value assessment;Chapter 4 is the construction of PV enterprise value assessment influencing factors and models,which firstly analyzes the influencing factors of PV enterprise value assessment,and then establishes a PV enterprise value assessment model based on the influencing factors and does the research.Chapter 5 is a case study,in which the value of 38 sample companies,represented by "Rising East",are evaluated according to the model constructed in Chapter 4.Chapter 5 is a case study in which the value of 38 sample companies,represented by "Oriental Sunrise",is evaluated according to the model constructed in Chapter 4,and the evaluated value of the sample companies is compared with the market value to verify the reasonableness of the model.Chapter 6 presents the research conclusions and countermeasure suggestions.Conclusions: First,the existing valuation methods have limitations in estimating the value of PV enterprises,and PV enterprises should choose valuation methods that fit their value characteristics;second,the deviation of the PV enterprise value obtained from the valuation model constructed in this paper from the market value of the company on the benchmark date is small and within a reasonable range,so the Schwartz-Moon model applied to the valuation of PV enterprises has a certain reference value for practical work.Therefore,the application of Schwartz-Moon model to PV enterprise value assessment has certain reference value for practical work.In this regard,this paper suggests that: first,the appraisal practice should make the necessary comparative selection of valuation methods for new energy enterprise value appraisal projects,and the professionalism of appraisers should be continuously improved with the changes of appraisal business;second,investors should objectively grasp the value of PV enterprises and make reasonable investment decisions.A fair valuation opinion not only provides a reasonable value reference for investments and mergers and acquisitions in the PV market,but also provides a more reasonable decision basis for enterprise management to formulate development strategies,helping PV enterprises to move towards the road of high-quality development.