| With the continuous development of social economy,the load demand of power system is increasing year by year.The existing power supply in the system may not be able to meet the increasing load demand year by year,resulting in the balance of power and electricity in the power system will be broken,and the power system will face the risk of unstable operation.Power supply planning in advance is an effective means to solve the shortage of power supply in power grid.Due to the acceleration of global energy transformation,clean and low-carbon energy industry has become a consensus.Countries are accelerating the transformation to clean and low-carbon new energy.Traditional hydrothermal power planning and power balance calculation can no longer meet the needs of new energy development.Therefore,based on power demand forecasting,it is of great academic value and practical significance to study the low-carbon power planning and power balance calculation of power system under the condition of adding clean energy.Due to the current lack of domestic power supply in Nepal,it is urgent to carry out power planning,and Nepal is rich in clean energy resources such as water scenery.Therefore,this paper takes Nepal as the research object.The main contents of this paper include :(1)In this paper,firstly,based on the historical socio-economic development of Nepal and considering the impact of the epidemic on Nepal in 2020,the elasticity factor method and per capita electricity consumption method are used to forecast the power system load of Nepal from 2025 to 2040.The forecast results found that the existing electricity in Nepal can hardly meet the growing load demand,and there is an urgent need for additional power sources to maintain the safe operation of the power system.(2)According to the principle and method of power and energy balance,clean energy such as wind power and photovoltaic is included on the basis of traditional hydrothermal power and energy balance.Considering the instability of wind power and photovoltaic output,this paper proposes a calculation method of power balance based on the monthly average output of wind power and photovoltaic,which effectively ensures the safety and stability of power system operation.In the power balance,the successive load shedding method is used to determine the output process and working position of the typical day of the hydropower station.According to the selected planning power station,taking a typical year in Nepal as an example,the power balance calculation is carried out,and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.(3)Considering the prospective annual load level of the power system,the type and scale of new planned power plants,and taking hydro power plants,thermal power plants,wind power plants and solar photovoltaic power plants as alternative types of planned power plants,and taking the minimum sum of construction cost,system operation and maintenance cost,thermal fuel cost and carbon dioxide emission cost of new planned power plants as the optimization objective,a regional power grid low-carbon power planning model is established,and the model is solved by genetic algorithm.The model is solved by genetic algorithm,and the power balance calculation module is nested in the model.Finally,taking Nepal as an example,the power planning scheme for Nepal in the target year is planned and the operation mode of each power plant in the system is determined.The model calculation results can be used as a reference for the Nepalese power system,and the regional power planning model established in this paper can provide a theoretical basis for regional power planning. |
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