Investment Risk Analysis And Income Distribution Of Fixed Investment And Return WSMC Projects

The severe shortage of water resources is the basic water situation in China and an important bottleneck constraint for economic and social development.A large amount of practical experience in water management has shown that the key to solving water problems in China lies in water-saving.Water Saving Management Contract(WSMC)is a new water-saving investment model that uses future water-saving income to pay for project renovation costs and share water-saving income.However,the lack of participation enthusiasm from water saving service companies has hindered the promotion of WSMC.Investment risk and income distribution are two major factors that affect the enthusiasm of water saving service companies.Therefore,the major subject of this thesis is how to scientifically and reasonably analyze the investment risk and income distribution of WSMC projects.Fixed investment and return model is one of the main models of WSMC,regarding the investment risks of fixed investment and return model WSMC projects,this thesis firstly analyzes the uncertain factors that affect the water-saving income of WSMC projects;Secondly,a total investment return model was established under the fixed investment and return model;Once again,investment risk measurement indicators were introduced to construct an investment risk assessment model under this model;Finally,numerical examples are used for analysis.Regarding the income distribution of fixed investment and return model WSMC projects,this thesis firstly selects the initial investment,the contract period and the proportion of excess water-saving income as the decision variables affecting the income distribution;Secondly,the profit function of water saving service company and water user under the fixed investment and return model is given;Finally,based on Stackelberg principal-subordinate game theory,four income distribution models of water user and water saving service company under non-cooperative game are established.Perform numerical analysis on the above model.The results indicate that:(1)the project has good investment value;(2)The initial investment amount and contract period are the main uncertain factors affecting the returns of water saving service companies.(3)the investment risk of the project is positively correlated with the confidence level and initial investment amount;(4)Water saving service company and water user respectively achieve the maximum profit value under their dominant Stackelberg equilibrium;(5)The project has the best water-saving income under the leadership of the water saving service company and prioritizes the initial investment amount;(6)Choosing water saving service companies with higher water-saving capabilities can help projects generate higher water-saving income.The research content of this thesis provides a new method for investment risk analysis and income distribution of the fixed investment and return model WSMC projects,providing reference for water saving service companies to make reasonable investment decisions,improving the participation enthusiasm of water saving service companies,and promoting the development of WSMC.