| The new Securities Law optimizes and adjusts the issuing conditions of corporate bonds,the use of raised funds and the response to default.As the subject of the first default in 2021,Hainan Airlines(HNA)should adjust its business and financial conditions under the supervision of the new Securities Law and complete the repayment of defaulted bonds as soon as possible.Therefore,this paper comprehensively discusses the defaulted bonds of HNA and makes an in-depth analysis of the reasons for the company’s bond default,with a view to providing useful reference for HNA to avoid bond default again.Based on the concept of bond default,relevant theories and the selection of risk early warning model,this thesis firstly adopts the case analysis method to introduce the shareholding structure,business status and basic information of corporate bonds of HNA and sort out the time point of bond default and the process of credit rating downgrade of HNA according to the chronological order.Secondly,using the combination of qualitative and quantitative method and model analysis method,MATLAB software is used to analyze the reasons and risk warning of HNA bond default.The analysis points out that:(1)The slowdown of GDP growth,the decline of industry prosperity in the air transportation industry,the continuous rise of jet fuel price and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate affect the operating profit of HNA,which are the main external reasons for the Company’s bond default;(2)The rapid expansion of merger and acquisition strategy,frequent related party transactions and guarantees,information disclosure violations and high leverage operation led to insufficient liquidity of HNA,high pressure of debt repayment and insufficient profitability,which were the main internal reasons for the company’s bond default;(3)Both Z-score model and KMV model show that HNA has credit risks before bond default,risk warning model is effective,and credit rating agencies have defects in the timeliness of revealing the company’s possible credit risks.Finally,this thesis puts forward specific risk prevention suggestions:(1)From the perspective of corporate finance,HNA should not only ensure the stability of the company’s cash flow,but also optimize the debt structure,improve the market share of the main business and increase the operating income,but also expand financing channels,play a good combination of financing measures and relieve the company’s debt repayment pressure;(2)From the company’s non-financial perspective,HNA should focus on the main business of aviation,make strategic planning for diversification,reduce unnecessary capital occupation,and take the opportunity of bankruptcy reorganization to reasonably reset the company’s management,improve the company’s internal control,and establish an effective risk early warning system;(3)China Securities Regulatory Commission,credit rating agencies and other agencies should strengthen the supervision of bond issuers,objectively conduct credit rating on bond issuers,and reduce the impact of information asymmetry on the bond market.The main innovation point of this thesis is that,in addition to selecting financial indicators with high sensitivity to the risk of corporate bond default,non-financial indicators such as industry characteristics,jet fuel price,corporate governance and stock price are also selected to analyze the reasons for bond default and conclude the transmission mechanism of the reasons for HNA bond default,which is helpful to reduce the adverse impact of the lag of financial indicators.Improve the integrity and rationality of the cause analysis and also help the company,regulatory authorities and market investors to timely identify the company’s possible default risk,and achieve the healthy and stable development of the company. |
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